Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells |
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| Institution: | 1. Technology and Society Laboratory, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Überlandstrasse 129, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland;2. Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstrasse 22, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;3. Group for Ecological Systems Design, Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Schafmattstrasse 32, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland;1. CREIDD Research Centre on Environmental Studies & Sustainability, Department of Humanity, Environment & Information Technology, University of Technology of Troyes, France;2. Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, Tomsk Polytechnic University, Russia;3. R&D Center, Samsung Engineering Co., Ltd., Suwon, South Korea;4. Department of Environmental Engineering, Inha University, Incheon, South Korea;2. School of Mechanical Engineering/Division of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Purdue University, 585 Purdue Mall, West Lafayette, IN, USA;1. School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA;2. School of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, USA;3. School of Mechanical Engineering/Division of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA |
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| Abstract: | Some renewable energy technologies rely on the functionalities provided by geochemically scarce metals. One example are CIGS solar cells, an emerging thin film photovoltaic technology, which contain indium. In this study we model global future indium demand related to the implementation of various energy scenarios and assess implications for the supply system. Influencing parameters of the demand model are either static or dynamic and include technology shares, technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere. Parameters’ levels reflect pessimistic, reference, and optimistic development. The demand from other indium containing products is roughly estimated. For the reference case, the installed capacity of CIGS solar cells ranges from 12 to 387 GW in 2030 (31–1401 GW in 2050), depending on the energy scenario chosen. This translates to between 485 and 15,724 tonnes of primary indium needed from 2000 to 2030 (789–30,556 tonnes through 2050). One scenario exemplifies that optimistic assumptions for technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere can reduce cumulative primary indium demand by 43% until 2050 compared to the reference case, while with pessimistic assumptions the demand increases by about a factor of five. To meet the future indium demand, several options to increase supply are discussed: (1) expansion of zinc metal provision (indium is currently a by-product of zinc mining), (2) improving extraction efficiency, (3) new mining activities where indium is a by-product of other metals and (4) mining of historic residues. Potential future constraints and environmental impacts of these supply options are also briefly discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Dynamic MFA Photovoltaics Scarce metals Indium CIGS solar cells |
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