Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications |
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| Institution: | 1. INRA, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33140 Villenave d’Ornon, France;2. Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33170 Gradignan, France;3. Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice), East and Southern Africa, P.O. Box 33581, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;4. Montpellier SupAgro, UMR 1221 LISAH, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 1, France;5. McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada;1. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Khartoum, 13314 Shambat, Khartoum North, Sudan;2. Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Aswan University, Aswan 81528, Egypt;3. Faculty of Science, Galala University, Galala city 43511, Egypt;4. Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam;5. Institute of Genomics for Crop Abiotic Stress Tolerance, Department of Plant and Soil Science, Texas Tech University, TX 79409, USA;1. Fraunhofer Institute for Interface Engineering and Biotechnology, Stuttgart, Germany;2. University of Zurich, Department of Psychology, Zurich, Switzerland;3. Department for Knowledge and Communication Management, Danube University Krems, Austria;4. Formerly Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover, Germany;1. Danube-University Krems, Department of Knowledge and Communication Management, Dr. Karl-Dorrek-Straße 30, 3500 Krems, Austria;2. CRU International, Chancery House, 53-64 Chancery Lane, London WC2A 1QS, United Kingdom;3. University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, School of Environment, Enterprise and Development, Canada;4. Harvard University, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (WCFIA), 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA |
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| Abstract: | Numerous recent studies discuss phosphate rock extraction, and some even propose that a peak in production could be reached in coming decades. This would have great consequences as phosphate rock based fertilizers are irreplaceable in modern agriculture. Studies suggesting an impending peak commonly use curve fitting models where mathematical functions are fitted to historical world production data, while studies using other methods reach completely different results. Also, a sudden increase in global reserve estimates is commonly used to dismiss these warnings, and has somewhat altered the debate. The recent multiplication of estimated reserves is mostly based on an increase of the Moroccan reserve estimate, leading to Morocco currently making up most of the global reserves. This study models global phosphate rock production using a disaggregated curve fitting model based on the production in individual major producing countries, providing a somewhat different view than most studies, and show that the global trade of phosphate rock could be completely dependent on Morocco in the future. There are several different factors that can potentially limit global production and these factors should be considered for the individual producing countries. Society's total dependence on phosphate rock should be further investigated despite claims of large resource occurrences. |
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| Keywords: | Phosphorus Phosphate rock Peak minerals Resource depletion Fertilizer Curve fitting modeling |
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