A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles |
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| Institution: | 1. Underwriters Laboratories LLC, Northbrook, IL, USA;2. Golisano Institute for Sustainability (GIS), Rochester Institute of Technology, 81-2175 190 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623, USA;1. Golisano Institute for Sustainability (GIS), Rochester Institute of Technology, 81-2175 111 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623, USA;2. NanoPower Research Labs (NPRL), Rochester Institute of Technology, 78-2402 156 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623, USA;3. Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology, 160 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623, USA;1. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany;2. Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol), Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), S.P. Andersens veg 5, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;3. Technical University Darmstadt, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institute IWAR, Material Flow Management and Resource Economy, Franziska-Braun-Straße 7, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany;4. Helmholtz Institute Ulm for Electrochemical Energy Storage, (HIU) Albert-Einstein-Allee 11, 89081 Ulm, Germany;1. Department of Urban Planning and Policy & Institute for Environmental Science and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, 412 S Peoria St., Chicago, IL, 60607, USA;2. Department of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, 412 S Peoria St., Chicago, IL, 60607, USA;3. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, 361021, China |
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| Abstract: | As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health. |
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| Keywords: | Lithium-ion batteries Electric vehicles Material flow analysis Waste management |
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