| 重特大火灾对南京市火灾发生影响规律的时间序列研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹兰,崔蔚,杨立中,陈恒.重特大火灾对南京市火灾发生影响规律的时间序列研究[J].火灾科学,2006,15(2):64-69. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹兰 崔蔚 杨立中 陈恒 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥,230026
2. 江苏省消防局,210015 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用时间序列法分析中国江苏省南京市每月火灾发生次数受该时间段内江苏省特大火灾以及南京市重特大火灾的影响规律。在对原始数据依次进行了异常点剔除、季节调整后，运用时间序列干涉模型对调整后的数据序列进行滞后分析，分析结果表明通常重特大火灾的影响可持续三个月。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 重特大火灾 混合自回归移动平均模型 干涉模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5309（2006）-0064-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-07 |
Time Series Study of How Serious Fire Impact on Fire Occurrence in Nanjing |
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| ZOU Lan,CUI Wei,YANG Li-zhong and CHEN Heng.Time Series Study of How Serious Fire Impact on Fire Occurrence in Nanjing[J].Fire Safety Science,2006,15(2):64-69. |
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| Authors: | ZOU Lan CUI Wei YANG Li-zhong and CHEN Heng |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Fire .Science of University of Science and Technology of China Hefei, 230026, Anhui, P. R China;2. Jiangsu Fire Protection Bureau, Jiangsu Province, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | Time series method was used to analyze the impact of serious fires on the fire occurrences in Nanjing from January 1997 to December 2003. By removing the outliers in the irregular component of original data series and seasonal adjustment, Intervention Model was used to model the impact on the fire occurrence rate for every month. The results showed that the impact lasts over three months normally. |
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| Keywords: | Time series Serious fires Seasonal adjustment ARIMA model Intervention model |
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