长江流域相对资源承载力与可持续发展研究

采用相对资源承载力的研究思路与计算方法，计算1988－1998年长江流域相对土地资源承载力、相对经济承载力和综合承载力及其变化过程。研究表明：（1）长江流域人口承载力从1988年到1998年一直处于超载状态，经济资源成为长江流域的主要承载资源；（2）相对资源承载力区域差异明显，上海、江苏2省市承载力一直处于富余状态，浙江从1993年起承载力处于富余状态；安徽、江西、湖南、湖北和川渝承载力一直处于超载状态；中上游地区自然资源是主要的承载资源，下游地区资源是主要的承载资源；（3）上游地区生态环境恶化，下游地区人地矛盾日益突出是长江流域可持续发展中存在的主要问题。

CARRYING CAPACITY OF RESOURCES AND PROBLEMS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN YANGTZE BASIN

This paper uses methods of relative carrying capacity of resources. The relative carrying capacity of land resources,relative carrying capacity of economic resources and synthetic carrying capacity of resources of Yangtze Basin have been calculated from 1988 to 1998.Thus conclusions were drawn: (1) the economics resource is the principal resource to support population and the synthetic carrying capacity has been the state of overload from 1988 to 1998;(2)the relative carrying capacity is very different in this region,the synthetic carrying capacity of Shanghai and Jiangsu has been the state of relative enough from 1988 to 1998,Zhejiang has been the state of relative enough since 1993; the synthetic carrying capacity of Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan,Sichuan and Chongqing has been the state of overload from 1988 to 1998.The natural resource is the principal resource of the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze Basin.The economic resource is the principal resource in lower reaches of Yangtze Basin;(3)the ecological environment of upper reaches has become bad,and the contradiction between human and environment systems of lower reaches becomes various,which are the main problems on its way towards the sustainable development direction.