基于耕地资源约束的中国大豆生产能力研究

论文首先在理论上系统分析了耕地资源约束与农产品生产能力之间的关系;以东北地区和黄淮海地区的大豆生产为重点,对主产区大豆生产的经济效益及影响大豆生产的资源、环境等其他问题进行了研究;并以县为基本单元,对中国大豆主产区未来大豆最大可能生产规模进行了预测;在分析大豆主产区大豆综合生产潜力基础上,研究提出了2020年之前中国大豆的最大可能生产能力在2800×10⁴～3400×10⁴t左右。但由于中国大豆生产和大豆加工存在严重的空间布局错位,应实施“南进北出”的大豆贸易战略;东北平原区的三江平原和松嫩平原是大豆增产潜力最大的地区,但该地区也是玉米主产区,扩大大豆种植面积必然带来玉米种植面积的下降,也将影响未来中国玉米的供求,所以,在耕地资源有限的情况下,应在“耕地资源-农产品”系统中研究耕地资源与农产品的综合平衡问题。

Study on soybean throughput based on cultivated land resources restriction in China

Theoretical studies have been made systematically on the relationship between farm-land resources and crop productivity.After analyzing the economic benefit of soybean in North-east China and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,studying the impact of resources and environment on soy-bean production,evaluating the maximum production scale in the main soybean producing area on the county level,the maximum production of soybean is estimated to be28～34million tons.Be cause there is serious spatial dislocation in soybean production and processing,the soybean trade strategy of"Importation into the South and Exportation out of the North"should be carried out.Though the Sanjiang and Songnen plains in Northeast China Plain in have great potential productivity of soybean,and are also the main maize producing area,expanding soybean culti-vated area will inevitably result in the decrease of maize cultivated area.So considering the limit-ed farmland area,the integrated balance between farmland resources and farm produce should be studied.