21世纪三峡库区中雨以上日数的情景预估

利用用于IPCC AR4的全球气候模式产品，验证其对三峡库区极端降水指数中雨以上日数（R10）模拟能力的基础上，对模拟能力较好的模式进行组合，同时考虑模式的偏差，预估高（A2）、中(A1B)、低(B1)3种排放情景下未来21世纪三峡库区R10的变化。不同排放情景下未来三峡库区R10的变化存在差异。与目前气候（1980～1999年）相比，未来整个21世纪（2011～2100年），A2情景下三峡库区R10平均减少1.7 d，A1B情景下平均减少0.3 d，B1情景下平均增加0.2 d，3种情景平均将减少0.6 d。21世纪初期（2011～2040年）、中期（2041～2070年）和后期（2071～2100年），A2情景下三峡库区R10减少都最多，分别平均减少2.5、1.5和1.0 d；3种情景平均分别减少1.4、0.2和0.1 d。〖

SCENARIO FORECASTING OF MORE THAN MODERATE RAIN（ANNUAL COUNT OF DAYS WHEN PRCP≥10 mm）IN THE THREE GORGES AREA FOR THE 21ST CENTURY 

The forecasting of extreme precipitation index (R10) in the Three Gorges area for the 21st century by using the global climate system models with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report had been analyzed in this paper.The results show that the variations of R10 are not same under different SRES in the future.And compared to the current climate (1980～1999),throughout the 21st century (2011～2100 years),R10 under SRES A2 will reduce 17 days;under SRES A1B reduce 03 days;under SRES B2 increase 02 days;R10 under the average of three scenarios will reduce by an average of 06 days.In the early 21st century (2011～2040 years),the medium term (2041~2070 years) and late (2071～2100 years),R10 under SRES A2 will be the largest reduction in the Three Gorges area,will reduce by the average of 25 days,15 days and 1.0 days respectively,and R10 under the average of three scenarios will respectively reduce by the average of 14 days,02 days and 01 days.〖