中国省域能源价格与碳强度协整研究：基于1995～2009年的面板数据

基于面板数据协整检验理论，利用中国华东地区七省域1995～2009年间的数据资料，检验能源价格与碳强度变量序列的平稳性及协整关系，并建立回归模型。结果表明：能源价格与碳强度之间存在长期均衡关系；Hausman检验认为能源价格与碳强度间应建立个体固定效应回归模型；能源价格对碳强度负相关，提高能源价格能显著降低碳强度，但不同地区碳强度对能源价格变化的反应不同；经济较发达的省域，能源价格相对较高而碳强度相对较低。建议适度提高能源价格，加强技术创新、优化能源结构和提升能源效率，积极推进省际产业衔接与协作，促使碳强度不断下降，实现能源、经济和社会可持续发展。

COINTEGRATION BETWEEN ENERGY PRICES AND CARBON DIOXIDE INTENSITY OF CHINA：PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA OVER 1995~2009 

Based on cointegrated testing theories of Chinese seven provinces' panel data over the periods 1995~2009，this paper empirically investigates the smoothness and the cointegration of two variable series including energy prices and carbon dioxide intensity to produce a logistic model.According to this model，the long term relationship between energy prices and carbon dioxide intensity has been verified by the F testing and the Hausman testing；the empirical results show that fixed effects model is the most competent one amongst several models for describing that relationship；developed provinces have much lower carbon dioxide intensity meanwhile higher energy prices than the counterparts of developing provinces；the impact of energy prices on carbon dioxide intensity is negative and varies from province to province.It is suggested that measurements should be adopted such as enhancing energy prices，promoting technological innovations，optimizing energy structure，improving energy efficiency，advancing interprovincial industry cohesion and cooperation，etc.to lower carbon dioxide intensity as well as to realize the sustainable development of energy，economy and society