江西省经济增长与耕地集约利用的定量分析

近20 a来，随着经济快速发展，江西省耕地资源不断减少。选取GDP、人口、固定资产投资总额、城市化水平与耕地面积作为主要分析指标，运用多元线性回归法和土地利用弹性系数理论分析了1990~2009年江西省经济发展与耕地面积变化的关系。研究结果表明：江西经济发展和人口增长与耕地面积变化呈负相关关系。经济社会的快速发展、人口数量的不断增加，特别是城市化水平的提高，是耕地资源流失的主要原因；江西耕地利用弹性系数较低且呈现剧烈波动性，说明在经济快速发展过程中江西耕地集约利用程度较低。

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH〖JP〗AND CULTIVATED LAND INTENSIVE USE IN JIANGXI PROVINCE

In recent 20 years，with the rapid development of the economy,the cultivated land area is reducing in Jiangxi Province.Gross domestic product,population,total investment of fixed assets,urbanization level and cultivated land area were selected as the four major factors for analysis in this paper.The correlations of cultivated land area decrease and economic development in Jiangxi from 1990 to 2009 were discussed in details as the major subject by Multiple Linear Regression and the theory of elastic coefficient of land utilization.The research results showed a negative correlation between economic growth and the available cultivated land.Cultivated land area decrease was impacted mostly by the economic development in Jiangxi.The main reasons of the loss of cultivated land resource were the rapid development of economy,the growth of population,especially the improvement of urbanization.The elastic coefficient of the cultivated land had the feature of a low and larger volatility,indicating that the level of cultivated land intensive use was still low in the process of Jiangxi economic rapid development.