三峡库区近50年来的气温变化趋势

利用三峡库区及周边32个气象站点1960~2006年的气温资料，运用线性趋势分析、累积距平分析和〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗检验等统计学方法研究了三峡库区近50 a来的气温变化趋势。研究结果表明：（1）近50 a来三峡库区气温变化总体上呈显著上升趋势，增温率为013℃/10 a；其中1960’s~1980’s末存在一个缓慢降温过程，1980’s末后快速增温。（2）三峡库区各季节平均气温变化过程与年气温变化过程相似，总体上也呈上升趋势，春、夏、秋、冬四季平均气温增温率分别为010、0005、019和021℃/10 a，其中冬季气温上升对库区年平均气温上升的贡献率最大。（3）年均气温跃变出现在1996年，春、夏、秋、冬四季气温跃变点分别出现在1996、1993、1997、1996年，季节气温的跃变与年均气温跃变具有较好的同步性。（4）三峡库区偏暖和显著偏暖年份都发生在1996年以后，其中1998〖JP2〗和2006年为异常偏暖年份；偏冷年份基本出现在1990’s以前，尤其集中在1980’s，但无显著偏冷和异常偏冷年份。〖

TRENDS OF AIR TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA FROM 1960 TO 2006

Based on the temperature data collected from 32 weather stations in and around Three Gorges Reservoir Area,the variation trends of air temperatures in Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2006 were studied using the statistical methods,including linear trend analysis,accumulated variance analysis and 〖WTBX〗t〖WTBZ〗 test.The results showed that:(1) On the whole,the annual mean air temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir Area markedly had a upward trend with the warming rate of 013℃/10 a during the recent 50 years,in which there was a slightly temperature fall period from 1960’s to 1980’s and a rapidly warming after the later period of 1980’s.(2) Similar to the variations of annual mean air temperature,the seasonal mean air temperatures also had increasing trends,and the warming rates in spring,summer,fall and winter were 010,0005,019 and 021℃/10 a,respectively.The winter warming had the greatest contribution to the rising of annual mean air temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir Area.(3) The jump point of annual mean air temperature was in 1996,while the jump points of seasonal mean air temperatures were in 1996,1993,1997 and 1996 from spring to winter,respectively.The jump point of annual mean air temperature roughly was synchronous with that of each seasonal one.(4) The warmer year and significantly warmer year appeared after 1996 in Three Gorges Reservoir Area,and 1998 and 2006 were abnormally warmer years.The cooler years appeared before 1990’s,especially in the 1980’s,and there were no significantly cooler year and abnormally cooler year yet in the area.〖