中国经济增长与耕地资源数量变化阶段性特征研究

利用Eviews 6.0软件，基于协整分析与Granger因果关系检验方法，探讨经济增长和耕地资源数量变化的相互关系和相互作用，以协调耕地保护和经济发展的矛盾。研究结果表明，不同经济增长阶段，我国耕地资源数量变化与经济增长存在长期均衡关系；自1952年以来，我国经济增长和耕地资源数量变化经历了3个阶段，具体表现为：（1）互为因果（1952～1978年），这一阶段农业在国民经济中具有重要地位，耕地的产出在经济增长中占据较大的份额；（2）前者是后者的Granger原因（1978～1992年），此阶段耕地资源投入量顺应了经济增长的要求，发挥了自己应有的作用；（3）后者是前者的Granger原因（1992~2008年），耕地资源作为要素投入支撑了经济的低质量增长，由此产生了重复建设、土地低效利用等问题。因此，关注经济增长和耕地资源数量变化在不同经济发展阶段的均衡关系，发现其中的规律，掌握其中的因果变化趋势，适时调整土地政策以适应经济增长的要求是亟待解决的战略问题。

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND QUANTITY CHANGE OF CULTIVATED LAND——CO INTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship and interactions between quantity change of cultivated land and economic growth, and to ease the conflicts between cultivated land protection and economic growth. Methods of co integration analysis and granger causality test were used.The empirical research shows that there were long equilibrium relationships between cultivated land quantity and economic growth at different economic growth periods.Since 1952,the changes of economic growth and cultivated land experienced three periods.The relationship of economic growth and cultivated land quantity reflected mutual causality from 1952 to 1978.Agriculture played an important role in the national economy at this phase.Economic growth was the cause of the reduction of cultivated land quantity from 1978 to 1992.In this period,the amount of cultivated land conversion conformed to the requirements of economic growth.Economic growth was supported by the input of cultivated land from 1992 to 2008.This resulted in inefficient use of land and other issues.Paying more attention to the equilibrium relationships between cultivated land quantity and economic growth at every different economic growth times,finding their change law, grasping the tendency of causal relationship,and rearranging the policy of land management were all used to adapt to the change of economic growth.In summary,easing the conflicts between cultivated land protection and economic growth is an urgent problem to settle.〖