江淮流域大洪水的因子分析及成因链初步构造

结合 1998年长江流域的特大洪水 ,提出了洪水成因链的概念 ,分析了各个物理因子对江淮洪水的影响。指出影响江淮洪水的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的 ,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的洪水成因链。成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,导致成因链上各个因子的致洪理论都不能完全地自圆其说 ,因而也无法完全确定地用于洪水预测。只有深入探讨洪水成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,对它们进行全面综合的诊断分析 ,才能提高江淮洪水预测的准确率。

FACTOR ANALYSIS OF LARGE FLOOD ALONG THE YANGTZE-HUAI RIVER BASIN WITH THE CONSIDERATIONOF PRELIMINARY STRUCTURE OF CAUSE CHAIN

According to the huge flood along the Yangtze River Basin in 1998,the concept of flood cause chain was put forward,the influence of every physical factor on the flood along the Yangtze-Huai River was also analyzed.It was pointed out that physical factor of the influence on the flood along the Yangtze-Huai River was linked ring upon ring.They made up one cause chain of flood connecting with another.The theory of flood cause of factors along the cause chain didn't justify itself and could not be used to forecast flood completely because of the positive feedback and decrease-increase effect between the physical factors along the cause chain.Only the positive feedback and decrease-increase effect between the physical factors along the cause chain of flood had deeply been analyzed,could the accurate ratio of flood forecast along the Yangtze-Huai River be improved.