结构突变视角下政府灾害支出的平稳协调机制

完备的防灾减灾机制的构建离不开政府的指导和支持,以典型海洋风暴潮灾害为研究对象,结合我国1990年以来沿海地区政府防灾减灾财政支出和风暴潮经济损失数据,构建衡量政府灾害防御能力的协调度指标。利用傅里叶变换对政府补贴灾害的协调度进行检验,发现其存在突变特征并依据非线性平稳性检验对补贴协调度进行动态拟合。测度结果显示,从长期来看,防灾减灾总支出灾害协调度,科技教育支出灾害协调度、城市建设灾害协调度、社会福利灾害协调度均显著上升,指出降低对政府支出过度依赖、探索多元的防灾减灾机制是提高我国灾害应急管理效率的重要措施。

Coordination mechanism between coastal financial expenditure and disaster losses based on structural change

The stable coordination of coastal disaster management and regional economic development requires guidance and support from the government.After taking coastal marine storm surge as the research object,this paper uses the data of disaster prevention expenses and economic losses to measure the ability of governmental disaster prevention,then,utilizing Flexible Fourier Estimate to test the indicatorswhile conducting their dynamic simulation.The results show that:on the one hand,the indicators includes certain structural changes and the Fourier approximation do reasonably well intesting the coordinationlevel; on the other hand,the governmental ability to cope with emergent disasters is strengthen periodically in recent years.In addition,the current situation of Disaster Prevention depending too much on the governmentsuggests that constructing diverse marine disaster prevention and mitigation mechanisms is a key method to promote the efficiency of China's marine disaster emergency management.