Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems |
| |
Authors: | Jiarui Han Qian Ye Zhongwei Yan Meiyan Jiao and Jiangjiang Xia |
| |
Institution: | (1) Atkins Water, Warrington, Cheshire, UK; |
| |
Abstract: | The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would
incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements
to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the
user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change
with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented
interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)
project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City,
Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed
involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to
previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent
in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|