长江下游地区过去300年的气候变化

采用重建的合肥年冬季温度序列和降水序列分析了长江下游地区过去300年的气候变化。在温度序列中，18世纪的大部分，19世纪中期和20世纪的温度较为温暖，最暖的十年出现于1990s，而最冷的年代为1870s，该温度序列与邻近其它地区重建的温度序列具有很好的一致性。降水序列显示年至多年尺度的气候波动，湿期发生于1730s-1760s，1844-1854年，1866-1910年，而干期出现于1806-1825年，1855-1867年，以及20世纪的大部分。温度和降水间的关系表明，在年至十年尺度上，该地区气候变化主要以暖干或冷湿为主。

CLIMATE VARIATIONS IN LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN SINCE 300 B.P.

Snowfall days recorded in the historic ‘Inches of Rain and Snow' (Yu-xue-fen-cun in Chinese) proxy record have been used to reconstruct mean winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperature back to 1737 A.D. for Hefei region. The temperature reconstruction correlates significantly with the averaged Dec-Jan-Feb instrumental temperature record (R=0.67, 1952～1997). It is concluded that winter temperatures during most of the 18th century, the middle-19th century and the 20th century were above the average. The warmest decade occurred in the 1990s and the coldest decade in the 1870s. The present reconstruction shows good agreement with additional temperature reconstructions in its vicinity for the common period of 1730s～1990s. In addition, the precipitation reconstruction displays annual to multi-year fluctuations. The wet period occurred in the 1730s～1760s, 1844～1854, 1866～1910 and the dry period occurred in the 1806～1825, 1855～1867, and the bulk of the 20th century. Studies of the relationship between temperature and precipitation indicated that warm-dry (cold-wet) conditions predominated over warm-wet (cold-dry) for Hefei region on annual to decadal timescales.