爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.

WAYS ON ANALYSIS AND TREATMENT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXPLOSION ACCIDENTS

This paper has given a detailed discussion and analysis of the controversies and difficulties as well as the extreme importance to deal with the explosion accidents. To deal with such a problem successfully, the paper has suggested some approaches on the basis of nonlinear mathematics concerning the probability or uncertainty processing. The suggested approaches may include the Differential Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, Fourier Approach and the Response Surface Analysis. Besides, corresponding mathematical models and processes for the purpose are provided for the purpose. At the same time, both advantages and disadvantages of these methods are further discussed in the paper with the features of the uncertainty presented in thorough analyzing of the quantitative explosion damage. And finally recommendations are given to adopt Monte Carlo Simulation to define the uncertainties of the explosion process analysis.