两种模式下中国未来发电行业发展情景及其环境效益分析

为了研究“双碳”目标模式下我国发电行业发展前景及带来的环境效益,建立了饱和“S”状灰色模型计算了按照旧有发电模式——非“双碳”模式下2021～2060年发电行业装机容量和发电量,并基于“中国2030年能源电力发展规划研究及2060年展望报告”计算获得了“双碳”模式下2021～2060年发电行业装机容量和发电量,对比研究了两种模式下中国未来发电行业的发展情景.通过物料衡算法和火电行业排放绩效构建了CO₂、 SO₂、 NO_x、 PM、 PM₁₀和PM_2.5的排放因子以及减排因子,定义了用于衡量污染物减排量的4种环境效益A₁～A₄.结果表明,在“双碳”模式下,火电机组将于2026年实现碳达峰,之后年均降低0.28亿kW,同时要求可再生能源发电机组于2020年后年均增加1.54亿kW以实现碳中和.与非“双碳”模式相比,“双碳”模式下火力发电装机容量将大幅度减少,可再生能源发电装机容量将大量增加,由此产生巨大的环境效益A₁...

Development Scenarios and Environmental Benefits Analysis of Future Power Generation Industry Under Two Modes in China

In order to study the impact of the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode on future power generation and the environment in China, a Verhulst gray model was established to predict the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode. In addition, based on the "China 2030 Energy and Power Development Planning Research and 2060 Outlook Report," the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode was obtained, and the development scenarios of the future power generation industry in China under two models were compared and studied. The emission factors and emission reduction factors of CO₂, SO₂, NO_x, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 were constructed through the conservation of elements and the generating performance standard, and then four environmental benefits A₁-A₄ were defined. The results showed that the installed capacity of thermal power will reach the carbon peak in 2026 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode. To achieve the carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of thermal power will be reduced by an average of 28 million kilowatts per year after 2026, and the installed capacity of renewable energy generated is required to increase by 154 million kilowatts per year after 2020. Compared with that in the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode, the installed capacity of thermal power generation will be greatly reduced, and the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will be greatly increased under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, resulting in huge A₁ and A₂ environmental benefits. In the next four decades, the cumulative emission reductions in CO₂, SO₂, NO_x, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 thermal power generation A₁ are predicted to be 6.64×10¹⁰ tons, 1.54×10⁷ tons, 1.55×10⁷ tons, 3.18×10⁶ tons, 1.71×10⁶tons, and 2.23×10⁵ tons, respectively. The cumulative emission reductions of renewable energy power generation A₂ will be 5.77×10¹⁰ tons, 1.64×10⁷ tons, 1.42×10⁷ tons, 2.86×10⁶ tons, 1.54×10⁶ tons, and 2×10⁵ t tons, respectively. Under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, compared with those from coal-fired power generation, the environmental benefits A₃ and A₄ produced by the relative cleanliness of renewable energy and nuclear power indicated that the cumulative emission reductions (A₃+A₄) in clean energy power generation of CO₂, SO₂, NO_x, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 in the next four decades will be 3.014×10¹¹ tons, 7.292×10⁷ tons, 7.119×10⁷ tons, 1.454×10⁷ tons, 7.827×10⁶tons, and 1.018×10⁶ tons, respectively.