用模糊数学方法分析长江、淮河、黄河、海滦河流域丰枯遭遇

我国北方干旱、南方湿润,地表径流分布又极不均匀,使得跨流域引水成为解决北方干旱的重大措施,已经设计并实施的南水北调东线工程及规划的中线初期引汉调水方案,都将涉及到被调水流域与受水流域及所通过水系流域的水文情势变化,它不仅影响调水线路的选择及调水量的确定,还直接或间接地影响着调水建筑物过水能力的设计。作为南水北调的基础研究,我们除用常规方法外,并用模糊数学方法进一步分析了长江、淮河、黄河及海滦河四大流域年径流量的丰枯遭遇。

APPLICATION OF METHOD OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS TO ANALYSES ENCOUNTER OF WET AND DRY YEARS IN CHANG JIANG, HUAI HE, HUANG HE AND HAI-LUAN HE

This paper used frequenity to analyses natural flow of wet and dry years in four areas of Chang Jiang, Huai He, Huang He and Hai-Luan He. The subordinative measure of wet and dry years of each station and fuzzy probablity of encounter of wet and dry years among the stations were calculated by fuzzy mathematical method. Acceding to analyses of the results, these are proved to be true that encounter of wet and dry years in Chang Jiang and Hai-Luan He is random and the most in Chang Jiang, Huai He and Huang He are the same time.The water transfer area is considered as one hand, and water recieve areas as the other hand. The encounter of wet and dry years in water transfer and water receive areas of eveiy routes of southto-north water transfer is calculated considering effects of through region on it. According to the encounter of wet and dry years, the middle route (on the middle reaches of Han Jiang) is better. Finally, we analysesed the frequenity neartude of wet and dry years, approved the results of fuzzy probability of calculated.