汶川地震重灾区雅安市资源环境承载力

资源环境承载能力评价是汶川地震灾区灾后恢复重建规划的一项重要基础工作，目的在于为重灾区恢复重建提出适宜人口规模，使灾后重建的人口空间布局与资源环境承载力相适应。对影响资源环境承载力的3个关键要素--耕地资源、水资源和环境容量进行分析评价，应用“木桶短板效应”原理，确定以耕地资源的人口承载力反映整个区域的资源环境承载力；并从耕地粮食的人口承载力和耕地经济收入的人口承载力等2个方面分别进行计算，综合确定人口的合理规模。结果表明：雅安市人口的合理规模，在2010年之前的恢复重建阶段，为1535～159万人，恢复重建阶段基本上不用考虑大规模移民；从2020年实现全面小康而言，为1585～164万人，总体上雅安市的资源环境能够满足其震后人口的小康社会建设需求，但要采取综合性政策措施，引导人口向市域内资源环境承载潜力大、产业、人口聚集能力强的雨城区、名山县转移

BEARING CAPACITY OF RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT OF YA′AN——HEAVILY DAMAGED AREA BY WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

Evaluation of the resources and environment bearing capacity is an important part of the national restoration and reconstruction planning after Wenchuan earthquake.It aims for putting forward the population quantity suitable for the resources and environment bearing capacity.This paper proposes an evaluating method based on three key factors：water resources，cultivated land resources and environmental capacity.The evaluating method has been applied to calculate the population bearing capacity of resources and environment of Ya’an city which was heavily damaged by the earthquake.According to “cask effect”，the population bearing capacity based on cultivated land resources has been selected to reflect the resources and environment bearing capacity.Population bearing capacity have been analyzed from cultivated land grain resources and income from cultivated land economy to determine the proper population scale synthetically.It is concluded that the population bearing capacity based on resources and environment before 2010 is 1535~159 million，and it’s not necessary to transfer population in large scale.For meeting well off standard in 2020，it is 1585~164 million.Totally the resources and environment can meet post earthquake population demand for well off society，but it needs to take comprehensive policies to lead the population to migrate to Yucheng and Mingshan County which have more capacity potential，strong industry and population concentration abilities 〖WTHZ