Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.