基于系统动力学的中国土地利用系统健康评价研究

通过仿真模拟中国土地利用系统状况,探寻实现土地利用系统健康发展的情景模式,为中国在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化,及进一步实现可持续发展目标提供参考路径。研究采用系统动力学模型构建土地利用系统,共模拟得到18种情景方案。通过设定经济发展、粮食安全和生态安全目标对情景方案进行筛选,保留了6种情景。采用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型构建土地利用系统健康评价体系,对6种情景进行评价。研究结果表明:第2种情景土地利用系统的健康水平最优且符合国情需要。最优政策情景具体表现为经济保持中速发展,到2035年GDP增长率稳落在4%,总量达到约200万亿;人口中速增长,2035年人口稳定在约14.85亿;土地整治力度大幅提升,土地整治投资金升至每年600～1 000亿元。

Evaluation of China’s Land Use System Health Based on System Dynamics

Abstract：By simulating the state of China’s land use system, we explore the scenarios that can achieve healthy development of land use system. It provides a reference path for China to basically realize socialist modernization in 2035 and promote the sustainable development goal. The research uses the system dynamics model to construct the land use system. The model adjusts the parameters of GDP growth rate, population birth rate, and land consolidation investment respectively to represent the state’s policy implementation on economic development, population control, and land consolidation, and a total of 18 scenarios are simulated. With the function of the system dynamics software Vensim PLE, the adjustment mechanism of the policy control variable parameters is established. Under different land use conditions, policy strength can be adjusted accordingly to optimize and enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation. Based on the simulation results of multiple scenarios, according to the national development strategy and the international economic development situation, the research sets the minimum standards for economic development, food security and ecological security that China needs to meet in 2035 to screen all simulation scenarios and eliminate non-conformities. Finally, 6 scenarios are retained. The “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) model is used to construct a land use system health evaluation system to evaluate the retained scenarios and select a scenario that meets the national development needs and has a high level of health. The result shows that the second scenario land use system has the best health level and meets the needs of national development. The optimal policy scenario is as follows: The economy will maintain a medium-speed development, by 2035 the GDP growth rate will stabilize at 4%, and the GDP will reach about 200 thousand billion. The population will maintain a medium-speed growth, and it will stabilize at about 1.485 billion in 2035. The intensity of land consolidation will increase, and it will increase to 60-100 billion yuan per year.