赣江上游典型流域水沙过程对全球气候变化的响应

剖析太阳活动与全球气候变化对地表水文要素的影响机制,能为区域水资源管理提供科学依据。根据1957～2015年逐月实测水沙资料,综合运用滑动平均、相关性、交叉小波和小波相干分析等方法,探讨了相关的全球气候指数对桃江流域水文要素的影响。结果表明:(1)7个全球气候因子与各水文要素的相关性有所不同。(2)全球气候涛动因子与降水、径流和输沙之间的显著共振周期主要集中在1.33～2.67 a;太阳黑子与降水和输沙之间的显著共振周期主要集中在11.00 a左右;降水与径流之间的显著共振周期主要集中在1.17～2.67 a。(3)太阳黑子活动通过"El Niňo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)-西北太平洋反气旋/气旋环流-东亚季风"系统实现对研究区降水的影响。(4)南极涛动通过影响东亚季风的强弱来影响研究区的降水。北极涛动通过西太平洋副热带高压影响东亚冬季风,来实现对研究区降水的影响。太平洋-北美涛动和北大西洋涛动通过影响研究区的气流与风的异常来影响研究区的冬季降水。

Response of Water and Sediment Processes of Typical Watershed Upstream of Ganjiang River to Global Climate Change

Interpretation on the mechanism of solar activity and global climate change on surface hydrological factors provides scientific guidance on the water resource management. This paper has adopted monthly measured runoff and sediment transport data from 1957 to 2015 in the Taojiang River Basin, one of the most important tributaries of the Ganjiang River, and the impact of the relevant global climate index on hydrological factors was discussed with sliding average, correlation, cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis. Results showed that:(1) The correlation between the seven global climatic factors and hydrological factors is different; (2) significant resonance cycles between global climatic oscillation factors and precipitation, runoff, and sediment transport mainly focus on the period of 1.33 - 2.67 a, the significant resonance period between sunspots and precipitation and sediment transport is mainly concentrated around 11a. (3) Sunspot activity has an impact on precipitation in the study area through the “ENSO-Northwest Pacific Anticyclonic(Cyclonic) Circulation-East Asian Monsoon” system. (4) The influence of atmospheric oscillations on the precipitation in the study area is reflected in three aspects: first, Antarctic Oscillation affects precipitation in the study area by affecting the strength of the East Asian monsoon；second, Arctic Oscillation influences the East Asian winter monsoon through the western Pacific subtropical high, thus affecting the precipitation in the study area；third, Pacific-North American Oscillation and North Atlantic affect the winter precipitation in the study area by affecting the airflow and wind anomalies.