省际物流业绿色全要素生产率时空差异及空间收敛性研究

将中国30个省市分为八大区域,基于2007～2017年省际物流业面板数据,构建考虑非期望产出的三阶段Super-SBM模型和Malmquist指数模型,对物流业绿色全要素生产率进行测算,并运用ESDA和空间收敛模型进行时空差异和空间收敛分析。研究结果表明:(1)剔除了管理无效率和外部环境因素的制约后,全国GTFP均值下降至0.985,南部沿海、北部沿海、西北、东部沿海区域的GTFP值上升,长江中游、东北、西南、黄河中游区域的GTFP值下降;(2)在时间差异上GTFP指数分三个时段,2007～2012年,GTFP指数大于1,2012～2014年,GTFP指数小于1,2014～2017年,GTFP指数大于1,总体呈上升-下降-上升的趋势;(3)全国各省市间物流业GTFP全局空间相关性逐渐增强,东北、北部沿海、黄河中游、长江中游、西南区域体现出了正相关拉动作用,北京、天津、山东始终是高绿色全要素生产率的核心带动地区。全国物流业发展不平衡,各地区间发展差异大,两极分化现象严重;(4)我国物流业GTFP水平呈现"M型"波动变化,最后逐渐趋于收敛态势。八大区域可分为两类,北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海、长江中游区域趋于收敛态势;黄河中游、东北、西南、西北区域趋于发散态势。

Research on Spatiotemporal Difference and Spatial Convergence of Green Total Factor Productivity in Interprovincial Logistics Industry

Abstract：Research divided 30 provinces and cities in China into eight regions. Based on the 2007-2017 interprovincial logistics industry panel data, a three-stage Super-SBM model and Malmquist index model were constructed to calculate the green total factor productivity of the logistics industry. ESDA and spatial convergence models were used to analyze the spatial and temporal differences and spatial convergence. The results show that: (1) After removing the constraints of management inefficiency and external environmental factors, the national average value of GTFP decreases to 0.985. In the southern coastal, northern coastal, northwest and eastern coastal areas increases, the GTFP indexes are increasing. In the middle reaches of the Yangtze river, northeast, southwest and the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the GTFP indexes are decreasing.(2) In terms of time difference, the GTFP index is divided into three periods. The GTFP index of 2007-2012 is greater than 1, the GTFP index of 2012-2014 is less than 1, the GTFP index of 2014-2017 is greater than 1.(3) The spatial autocorrelation is gradually strengthened. The northeast, northern coastal, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze river and southwest regions show positive spatial pull effect. Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong have always been the core drive high green total factor productivity provinces. The development of logistics industry in China is not balanced, the development of different regions varies greatly, and the phenomenon of polarization is serious.(4) The GTFP level of China’s logistics industry presents “M” type fluctuation, and tends to converge finally. Eight regions can be divided into two categories. The northern coastal, the eastern coastal, the southern coastal and the middle reaches of the Yangtze river regions tend to converge. The middle reaches of the Yellow River, northeast, southwest and northwest regions tend to diverge.