长三角地区碳排放效率时空特征及影响因素分析

长三角区域一体化发展战略上升为国家战略,要求建立区域间协调机制,引导低碳产业,弥补绿色发展的短板。掌握长三角地区碳排放效率时空特征及其影响因素,对长三角地区低碳高效发展及顺利实现碳减排目标具有重要的现实意义。基于考虑非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型与窗口分析相结合的方法,测算碳排放效率,利用传统统计分析与空间分析相结合的方法,分析了1995～2017年长三角地区碳排放效率时空特征,并考虑空间因素,构建空间杜宾面板模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)1995～2017年碳排放效率总体呈波动变化趋势。2017年,上海、苏州和无锡的碳排放效率为1。碳排放效率绝对差异与相对差异呈波动变化,且变化趋势基本一致。碳排放效率存在不均衡现象。(2)碳排放效率区域差异明显,2005年后,空间格局变化不大,上海、苏州和无锡形成了碳排放效率高值区。碳排放效率重心主要分布在南京市,总体向西北移动。(3)空间杜宾面板模型结果表明:提高技术水平是改变碳排放效率的重要途径。城镇化和空间因素对碳排放效率具有明显的正向作用;外商投资、单位GDP能耗和生态环境对碳排放效率具有明显的负向作用。

Spatio temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions Efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta Region

The development strategy of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta region has risen to a national strategy, which requires the establishment of interregional coordination mechanism to guide low carbon industries and make up for the shortcomings of green development. Mastering the spatio temporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions efficiency is of great practical significance for the low carbon development and the realization of carbon emission reduction target in the Yangtze River Delta region. Based on the combination of SBM model and window analysis, the carbon emissions efficiency was calculated. The spatio temporal characteristics of carbon emissions efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta from 1995 to 2017 was analyzed by traditional statistical analysis and spatial analysis. Meanwhile, the spatial Durbin panel model was constructed to analyze its influencing factors. The results are shown as follows: (1) The carbon emissions efficiency showed a fluctuating trend over the period of 1995-2017. In 2017, Shanghai, Suzhou and Wuxi had the largest carbon emissions efficiency of 1. The absolute difference and relative difference in carbon emissions efficiency showed fluctuating trend, and the change trend is basically consistent. There was an imbalance in the carbon emissions efficiency. (2) There was obvious spatial disparity for carbon emissions efficiency, the spatial pattern of carbon emissions efficiency changed little since 2005. The high carbon emissions efficiency areas were mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Suzhou and Wuxi. The gravity center of carbon emissions efficiency was mainly distributed in Nanjing City, and moved to the northwest. (3) The results of spatial Durbin panel model show that improving the technical level is an important way to change the carbon emissions efficiency. Urbanization and spatial factors played a significantly positive effect role in improving carbon emissions efficiency, foreign investment, energy consumption per unit GDP and ecological environment have a significantly negative impact on carbon emissions efficiency.