初始排放权分配对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响分析

碳排放权分配是我国碳交易机制设计的根本性问题之一.然而,不同初始分配方案对我国碳减排和宏观经济的影响尚不明确,成为制约碳交易市场快速发展的重要因素.本文以我国"十三五"时期碳排放强度下降目标为约束构建非线性规划模型,模拟了"祖父分配方案"、"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"3种初始排放权分配方案对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响.结果表明,碳交易市场能有效降低我国实现碳排放强度下降目标的经济成本,但在不同初始排放权分配方案下省区间的碳减排成本差异有所不同.与"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"相比,"祖父分配方案"下省区间碳减排成本差异较小,更能体现碳排放权分配的公平性.以公平为导向的初始排放权分配和以效率为导向的碳排放权交易相结合,有助于我国提升碳排放权配置效率、降低减排成本,促进省区间碳交易市场均衡发展.

Analyzing the impacts of allocation schemes for initial emission allowance on provincial emission trading strategies and their abatement costs

Although the allocation of carbon emission allowance (CEA) is recognized as a prerequisite for China''s emission trading scheme (ETS), the impacts of different initial CEA allocation schemes on China''s emission reduction and macro economy have not been well explored, thus posing a major obstacle to the implementation of China''s unified ETS. To bring clarity to this core issue, this paper develops a non-linear programming model constrained by the carbon intensity reduction target proposed by the China''s 13th Five-Year Plan, and simulates the impact of three allocation schemes, namely, the grandfathering scheme, ability-to-pay scheme, and egalitarianism scheme on emission trading strategies and abatement costs of each Chinese province. The results show that ETS can substantially reduce China''s total abatement costs, while the cost saving effects at the provincial level differ across the allocation schemes. The grandfathering scheme can lead to the smallest gap of provincial abatement costs as compared to the ability-to-pay and egalitarianism schemes. Combining the equity-oriented allocation of CEA and efficiency-oriented trading is expected to help China improve the efficiency of CEA allocation, reduce abatement costs, and facilitate coordinated development of interprovincial ETS.