经济转型背景下工业污染时空格局演变及其驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

合力打好污染防治攻坚战、强化区域生态环境共保是全面贯彻落实绿色发展理念,推动长三角地区更高质量一体化发展的重要内容。在中国区域经济转型发展背景下,利用城市工业污染物排放和经济社会发展统计数据,重点分析了2003～2015年长三角地区主要工业污染物排放相对规模和强度的时空格局演变规律,探讨了经济转型发展等因素对工业污染时空格局的动态影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)长三角地区主要工业污染物排放相对规模和强度总体呈下降趋势,2003～2015年工业废水、SO_2排放总量分别削减约13%和24%,每万亿元工业总产值的废水、SO_2和烟(粉)尘排放量分别削减87%、88%和71%左右。(2)工业污染排放仍主要集聚在沿沪宁、沿长江和沿沪杭甬等工业发达地区以及部分资源型城市,并呈现由核心区向皖江城市带、苏北等外围区转移扩散的态势,但不同污染物之间差异较为显著。(3)外围区工业污染物排放相对强度较高(多为1.0以上),但近年来南京、杭州等核心区的工业污染物(尤其是工业粉尘)排放相对强度有所上升。(4)经济转型是工业污染时空格局演变的重要驱动力,其中产业结构升级、创新与消费驱动转型增长等是抑制工业污染物排放规模扩张的重要因素;而创新投入及技术进步、企业质效提升、外资外贸结构优化等则有利于降低工业污染物排放相对强度;但由于各地经济转型阶段不同,上述因素对工业污染的影响机制存在显著的空间差异。该研究揭示了经济转型背景下工业污染时空格局演变及驱动因素,对于强化新时期长三角地区工业污染协同防治等具有一定政策参考价值。

Changing Distribution of Industrial Pollution and Its Driving Forces in the Context of Economic Transition: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta,China

How to deal with the relationship between economic growth and environmental protection plays an important role in the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Based on the database of industrial pollutant emission and socioeconomic development, this paper analyzes the changing spatial pattern of the relative size and intensity of industrial pollutant in the YRD. We also pay particular attention to the impacts of economic transitions on the restructuring landscape of industrial pollution at city level. The result indicates that the relative emission size and intensity of pollutant emission presented a declining trend in the YRD. The volumes of industrial waste water and SO2 discharged have decreased by 13% and 24% respectively. The emission intensities of industrial waste water, SO2 and soot (dust) have decreased by 87%, 88% and 71% respectively. Second, the emission of industrial pollutants has still concentrated in the developed regions and some resource-based cities, such as cities along the “Hu (Shanghai)-Ning (Nanjing)” highway, “Hu-Hang (Hangzhou)-Yong (Ningbo)” highway, and Yangtze River. But, industrial pollution tended to relocate from the core to the peripheral areas, such as Northern Jiangsu and Central Anhui. However, the decreasing trend and spatial pattern obviously varied across different industrial pollutants. Third, the emission intensity of industrial pollutants was much higher in the peripheral YRD, and that of some core cities (e.g. Nanjing and Hangzhou) also presented an increasing trend during recent years. Forth, our modeling results suggest that the continuing economic transition plays an increasingly important role in the changing spatial pattern of industrial pollution in the YRD. In particular, industrial upgrading, firm innovation and the adjustment the structure of foreign investment have contributed to the pollution control and environmental protection. However, due to the different stages of economic transformation in various regions, there are significant spatial differences in the mechanisms of the above factors affecting industrial pollution. This study has uncovered the changing distribution of industrial pollution and its driving forces in the context of economic transition and region integration, and our findings will contribution to the intergovernmental cooperation about environmental protection in the YRD.