1.5℃温控目标背景下地球工程对中国不同区域气温影响的预估研究

基于BNU-ESM模式的地球工程(G4实验)和非地球工程(RCP4.5)情景下的2010～2099年中国日值平均气温数据,采用多种数理统计方法,诊断地球工程实施对中国不同区域气温变化的影响。结果表明:(1)2010～2099年两种情景下中国不同区域的年平均气温均呈增加趋势。地球工程实施的2020～2069年,地球工程有效降低了中国不同区域年平均气温的增加趋势。(2)地球工程实施的2020～2069年,中国多数地区的年平均气温降温幅度超过了1.0℃,对《巴黎协定》制定的1.5℃温控目标的实现具有积极推动作用。且地球工程实施结束后的2070～2099年中国不同区域的气温并未出现报复性反弹。(3)2010～2099年两种情景下的中国不同区域年平均气温均发生了突变。地球工程的实施使得中国绝大多数地区的气温突变推迟了11～19 a。(4)基于交叉小波变换的中国不同区域年平均气温序列的高能量波谱区振荡表明,两种情景下的高频年均气温在1～4 a尺度上存在反位相关系,表明地球工程短期内改变了气温变化方向。基于小波相干的中国不同区域年平均气温序列的低能量波谱区振荡表明,地球工程并未从根本改变气温长期变化趋势。

Prediction of the Influence of Geoengineering on the Temperature in Different Regions of China Under the Background of 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target

Based on the daily average temperature data from 2010 to 2099 in geoengineering (G4 experiment) and non-geoengineering (RCP4.5) scenarios of BNU-ESM model, this research diagnosed the influence of geoengineering implementation on temperature change in different regions of China by using various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that: Firstly, under the two scenarios from 2010 to 2099, the annual mean temperature in different regions of China showed an increasing trend. Geoengineering effectively reduced the increasing trend of annual average temperature in different regions of China from 2020 to 2069. Secondly, the annual average temperature in most areas of China dropped by more than 1.0℃ from 2020 to 2069, which played an active role in promoting the realization of the 1.5℃ temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement. And there was no retaliatory rebound in temperature in different regions of China from 2070 to 2099 after the implementation of geoengineering. Thirdly, the average annual temperature in different regions of China under two scenarios had changed from 2010 to 2099. The implementation of geoengineering had delayed the abrupt change of temperature in most areas of China for 11-19 years. Fourthly, high energy spectral oscillations of annual mean temperature series in different regions of China based on cross wavelet transform showed that the high frequency annual mean temperature in the two scenarios had inverse correlation on the scale of 1-4 years, indicating that geoengineering had changed the direction of temperature change in a short time. Low energy spectral oscillations of annual mean temperature series in different regions of China based on wavelet coherence showed that geoengineering had not fundamentally changed the long term trend of temperature change.