长江经济带基础设施建设对三次产业协调度的影响研究

协调发展新理念要求三次产业间要协调发展,长江经济带的高质量发展离不开三次产业协调发展。在测算长江经济带九省两市三次产业协调程度的基础上,采用静态面板、面板门槛和空间面板模型,估计交通、能源和信息三类基础设施建设对长江经济带三次产业协调度的影响。结果发现整体上,这三类基础设施建设都显著提高长江经济带三次产业协调度,且长江上游地区交通基础设施的提高作用最大,中下游地区信息和能源基础设施的提高作用更大。信息和能源基础设施对长江经济带三次产业协调度的提高作用有门槛效应,从低区间跨越到中高区间后,该提高作用在递增。长江经济带各省市三次产业协调度还存在空间自相关效应,在此条件下,三类基础设施建设依然促进三次产业协调度提高,信息基础设施对于三次产业协调发展的促进作用最大。长江经济带应持续加大基础设施建设的整体投资力度,并针对性补齐不同地区的基础设施建设短板,发挥地区间三次产业协调度的空间外溢效应。

Research on the Impact of Infrastructure Construction on Coordination Degree of Three Industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract：The new concept of coordinated development requires coordinated development among three industries, and the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is inseparable from the coordinated development of three industries. This paper estimates coordination degree of three industries for nine provinces and two cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and adopts static panel, panel threshold and spatial panel models to estimate the impact of transportation, energy and information, three types of infrastructure construction on coordination degree of the three industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Results state that three types of infrastructure construction all significantly improve coordination degree of three industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The improvement effect of transportation infrastructure in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is the biggest, and the effect of information and energy infrastructure in the middle and lower reaches is bigger. There is a threshold effect for information and energy infrastructure on the improvement of coordination degree of three industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. From the low range to the medium-high range, the improvement effect is progressively increasing. There is a spatial autocorrelation effect on coordination degree among three industries in the provinces and cities of Yangtze River Economic Belt. Under this condition, three types of infrastructure construction still improve the coordination degree of three industries, and the improvement effect of information infrastructure on the coordination development of three industries is the biggest. The Yangtze River Economic Belt needs to expand the total investment of infrastructure construction continuously, and shore up the targeted weak spots of infrastructure construction in different regions, and fulfil the spatial spillover effect of coordination degree of three industries among different regions.