老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法

为揭示老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因相互影响关系,评估管道综合风险,提出一种基于模糊决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法的老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法。首先通过系统识别失效诱因,建立老龄城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系;然后基于模糊DEMATEL方法确定管道失效诱因关联路径,分析失效风险间的相互作用关系;最后结合风险评价指标初始状态信息和权重,确定老龄城镇油气管道的综合风险值,并据此提出相应的管控措施。研究表明:该方法能够识别老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因之间的复杂影响关系;公众教育的缺失是造成管道事故的主要风险诱因,完善管道裂纹检测,加强腐蚀防控,可有效降低老龄城镇油气管道的潜在运行风险。

Research on failure risk evaluation methodology of aging urban oil and gas pipeline

In order to reveal mutual relations between causes of aging urban oil and gas pipeline failure and evaluate comprehensive risk of pipelines,a failure risk evaluation methodology based on fuzzy DEMATEL method was proposed.Firstly,an index-based risk evaluation system was established through identifying failure causes.Secondly,correlation paths of these causes were determined based on fuzzy DEMATEL method,and interaction between risks was analyzed.Finally,in view of initial metrix and weights of risk evaluation indexes,comprehensive risk value of aging urban oil and gas pipelines was defined,and corresponding measures for risk reduction were put forward.The research shows that the proposed methodology can identify complex relations between failure causes of aging urban oil and gas pipelines.Among all factors,lack of public education is a major risk trigger for pipeline accidents.Nevertheless,potential risks of them could be effectively reduced by improving crack detection and enhancing control of corrosion.