基于SD模型的不停航施工情景下机场安全风险作用机理研究

以不停航施工为特定情景,构建SD模型对机场安全风险的发生及作用机理进行研究。首先采用鱼骨图识别不停航施工情景下的机场安全风险,得到不停航施工情景下的机场安全风险共包括22个关键影响因子;然后采用因果关系图分析安全风险的影响关系,并运用SD模型软件Vensim PLE构建不停航施工情景下的机场安全风险SD模型流图,分析风险的作用机理,得到各风险因子相互作用形成5个主要的风险回馈循环;最后从机场层面、政府层面、施工企业层面三方面着手,提出了具体管理建议。该研究丰富了不停航施工情景下的机场安全风险方面的理论研究,可为减少不停航施工情景下的机场安全风险、完善民用机场安全风险管理体系提供参考。

Airport Security Risk Mechanism under the Circumstance of Non-suspend Air Construction Based on the System Dynamics Model

Taking non-suspend air construction as the specific circumstance,this paper builds the System Dynamics (SD)model to research the airport safety risk occurrence and functional mechanism.The paper applies Fishbone Diagram to identify airport security risks and gains 22 key factors under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction.Then,the paper establishes causality diagram to analyze the interaction of the influence factors and builds the SD model flow chart by software Vensim PLE under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction.Through analysis of risk mechanism,the paper obtains five major feedback loops formed under the interaction of the risk factors.Finally,the paper puts forward management sugges-tions concerning the airports,government and construction enterprises.The paper enriches the theory re-search about airport security risks under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction,which may pro-vide reference for reducing airport security risks and improving the civil airport security risk management system under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction.