基于3D框架的长三角城市群工业污染物排放研究

为了厘清主要经济地理要素与城市群工业污染物排放量的关系,引入新经济地理学3D——density(密度)、distance(距离)、division(分工/分割)框架,并采用该框架系统分析主要经济地理要素与长三角城市群污染物排放量之间的关系. 结果表明:①地均GDP对长三角城市群工业污染物排放量均存在显著影响,与工业SO₂、废水和烟粉尘排放量的弹性系数分别为0.027、2.080和1.014. ②综合交通距离对工业废水和烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响,弹性系数分别为-1.638和-0.625,而心理距离对污染物排放量未产生显著影响. ③分工/分割要素对城市群工业污染物排放量的影响各不相同. 外商直接投资对工业SO₂、废水、烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响,制造业专业化指数仅对工业SO₂和烟粉尘排放量有显著影响,而进出口总额占GDP比重与工业废水和烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响. ④长三角城市群工业污染物排放量与地均GDP、外商直接投资呈正相关,与综合交通距离、制造业专业化指数和进出口总额占GDP比重呈负相关,缓解长三角城市群工业污染物排放困境,不仅要适度控制经济发展速度和提高外资进入的环境标准,还应进一步优化长三角城市群在国内外市场上的分工和协作地位. 

Analyzing Industrial Pollution Emissions from the Yangtze River Delta with a 3D Framework

Abstract: In order to clarify the relationship between economic geography factors and industrial pollution emissions in urban agglomeration, a 3D analysis framework proposed by the World Bank was used to analyze the relationship between density, distance, division and industrial pollution emissions. The results showed that the GDP per area (GPA) significantly affected the industrial pollution emissions; the elasticity coefficients of GPA and industrial pollution emissions (e.g., SO₂, wastewater, soot) were 0.027,2.080 and 1.014, respectively. Integrated transport distance (ITD) profoundly affected industrial wastewater and soot pollution emissions, but had no significant effect on the industrial SO₂ emissions; the elasticity coefficients were -1.638 and -0.625, respectively. However, psychological distance (PD) had no significant effect on the urban pollution emissions. Division on the industrial pollution emissions was different. Foreign direct investment (FDI) played an important role in industrial pollution emissions. The manufacturing specialization index (MSI) significantly impacted on industrial SO₂ and soot emissions. The ratio of imports and exports to GDP (IEG) had a significant impact on wastewater and soot emissions. GPA and FDI were positively related to industrial pollution emissions, and ITD, MSI and IEG were negatively related to industrial pollution emissions. However, PD had no significant relationship with industrial pollution emissions. In order to alleviate the problem of industrial pollution emissions, the economic development speed should be appropriately controlled, and the environmental standards for foreign investment should be improved. Moreover, we also optimized the division and cooperation status in the domestic and international market.