中国汽车行业钢铁物质流代谢研究

汽车行业在我国发展迅速,汽车行业的钢铁物质流代谢在整个国民经济的钢铁物质流代谢系统中的影响已不可忽视。研究中国汽车行业钢铁物质流代谢对再生资源利用产业、再制造行业的发展具有重要的意义。结合系统动力学方法及相关经验模型对中国汽车行业钢铁物质流代谢进行研究。首先通过Gompertz模型研究了世界主要国家汽车千人保有量与时间的关系,以此为参照设定中国汽车千人保有量随时间变化的相关参数。其次利用中国汽车行业钢铁物质流循环代谢的系统动力学模型,对系统关键流量、存量的动态变化过程进行考察分析,通过设定不同情景、不同寿命分布,研究中国汽车报废量、钢板和零件耗钢量随时间变化的规律,并探讨了零件再制造、汽车轻型化等问题。选取汽车千人保有量为260辆/千人的中等情景进行分析,考察时间为2011-2050年,结果表明报废汽车年折钢量与汽车行业钢材年消耗量比值不断上升,最终可达到1.2;再制造行业潜力巨大,零件再制造数量将近8亿件;延长汽车4 a寿命,可减少近一半的汽车报废量;通过轻型化,钢材年消耗量可减少18%,减少近650万t,累计减少1亿多吨钢材,节省大量资源,经济和环境效益显著。

Iron and Steel Material Flow Metabolism in China Automobile Industry

As the booming of automobile industry in China,the consumption of steel is growing rapidly.The study of iron and steel material flow metabolism in China automobile industry is of great significance to the development of resource recycling industry and remanufacturing industry.The system dynamics model and empirical model were integrated,and the change trend of passenger cars in use per 1 000 people in the world's main automobile production counties was studied by using Gompertz model,and coefficient from the model was used as an important reference in the study of China case.The system dynamic model of steel metabolism was used for analysis of critical flows and stocks of vehicle products and those of iron and steel materials.Scenario analysis was presented by setting different cars in use and life distribution parameter in the system dynamic model,in which the change trends of scraped automobile,steel plate and parts consumption of steel output were studied,and effects of parts remanufacturing and light weight vehicles developing were also discussed.The medium scenario was chosen for analysis during 2011 to 2050,in which the cars in use were 260 per 1 000 people.Study showed that the ratio of steel in scrapped cars to automotive industry's annual consumption would keep rising and eventually reached 1.2. Re-manufacturing industry has great potential,that the number of re-manufactured parts would be nearly 800 million.If vehicle life spans increase 4 years,the number of scrapped cars would be reduced by nearly one half.The lightening of cars would reduce steel consumption by 18%,and results in the cumulative reduction of over 100 million tons,leading to great resource reduction and bringing about significant economic and environmental benefits.