| 东北区低温冷害风险评估及区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 袭祝香,马树庆,王琪.东北区低温冷害风险评估及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):98-102. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袭祝香 马树庆 王琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 吉林省气象台,吉林,长春,130062
2. 吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林,长春,130062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"十五"科技攻关项目"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害预警及控制技术研究"(2001BA509B14) |
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| 摘 要： | 从变异系数、正态分布风险概率、风险指数三方面对东北区热量条件的稳定性和低温冷害的风险进行了讨论和评估;并将上述三种风险指标极差化,以求取低温冷害的综合风险指数,最后以综合风险指数为指标,并参考变异系数、正态分布风险概率、风险指数,给出了东北区低温冷害风险区划。
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| 关 键 词： | 东北地区 低温冷害 风险评估 区划 变异系数 正态分布风险概率 风险指数 热量条件 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4574(2003)02-0098-05 |
Risk evaluation and zonation of the low temperature and cold damage in Northeast China |
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| XI Zhu xiang ,MA Shu qing ,WANG Qi.Risk evaluation and zonation of the low temperature and cold damage in Northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(2):98-102. |
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| Authors: | XI Zhu xiang MA Shu qing WANG Qi |
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| Institution: | XI Zhu xiang 1,MA Shu qing 1,WANG Qi 2 |
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| Abstract: | The stability of the heat condition and the risk of the low temprature and cold damage in Northeast China are discussed and evaluated from variational coefficient,risk probability of normal distribution and risk index.Then the three indices are standardized and a comprehensive index is obtained.Lastly,the risk zonation of the low temprature and cold damage in Northeat China is given by using comprehensive index with consulting variation coefficient,risk probability of normal distribution and risk index. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China low temprature and cold damage risk evaluation zonation |
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