Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration |
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Authors: | J Onigkeit N Anger B Brouns |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Kurt Wolters Str. 3, 34119 Kassel, Germany;(2) Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), P.O. Box 10 34 43, 68034 Mannheim, Germany;(3) Fraktion DIE LINKE. im Bundestag, Platz der Republik 1, 11011 Berlin, Germany |
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Abstract: | Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading
of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should
be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading
Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles
of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step
analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries
for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input
to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking
the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per
capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate
that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied
by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO2 permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.
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Keywords: | Emissions trading EU ETS Post-2012 reduction targets Burden sharing |
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