国内大城市煤改气工程的费用-效益分析

国内大城市以PM10和SO2为主要污染物的煤烟型污染十分严重,因而天然气作为煤的清洁替代品已越来越受到人们的重视。过去天然气作为宝贵的战略资源多被用作化工原料,而对是否应将其作为城市民用燃料存有争论。本研究以北京和重庆为案例城市,对大城市中实施大规模的“煤改气”工程进行了详尽的费用－效益分析（CBA）。其中,采用Rowe与Ostro的剂量－反应函数详细估算了天然气替代煤后产生的外部效益。结果表明,在人口和经济活动高度集中的大城市,使用天然气作民用燃料能有效降低非点源大气污染物排放和低空污染物浓度,产生明显的环境效益,因而具有显著的效益－费用比较优势。最后,本文对激励天然气在大城市的推广提出了环境经济政策建议。

Cost-benefit analysis to substituting natural gas for coal project in large Chinese cities

Since China's large cities were faced with serious coal\|smoke pollution with PM 10 and SO 2 as the main pollutants, natural gas is becoming one of the most attractive clean replacers of coal. To clarify the wide disputation and doubt on the rationality of burning natural gas instead of coal, cost\|benefit analysis (CBA) of urban natural gas substitution projects in Beijing and Chongqing was done respectively, in which, the health benefit was carefully estimated with epidemical dose\|response function as the main external benefit. The final result shows that in large cities with intensively concentrated population and economic activities, natural gas consumption as municipal civil energy has obvious priority in terms of large environmental benefit from reducing non\|point and low\|altitude air pollutant concentration. This paper finally recommends that market oriented system reform in natural gas production and retailing system should be considered.