不同补贴机制下的农村清洁取暖价格政策分析

补贴是北方农村清洁取暖价格政策的重要方面，确保兼顾清洁能源替代和农村居民取暖福利，从而实现政策的可持续性. 基于天津、衡水、德州3个城市的实地调研数据，通过配对样本t检验、多元回归和费用效益分析方法，探究了不同补贴机制下的清洁取暖价格政策对居民用能行为和取暖福利的影响. 结果表明:①清洁取暖价格政策会导致取暖成本增加，补贴会显著提高用气量和体感温度，但使各城市面临较大财政压力. ②各地农村清洁取暖价格政策在对用能行为、污染减排效果的影响方面存在较大差异. ③一次性补贴通过减少清洁能源消费量同时增加体感温度，提供了扭曲的价格信号. ④家庭收入显著影响清洁取暖价格政策效果. 因此，一次性补贴需要向从量补贴转变，补贴可以考虑向低收入家庭倾斜或者实施阶梯化的补贴. 为建立清洁取暖长效机制，一方面可以考虑针对农村清洁取暖建立区域大气污染补偿机制，从而推动各地建立因地制宜的清洁取暖价格补贴机制；另一方面可通过改进清洁取暖技术来降低成本，同时开发多种形式的清洁能源. 从长远看，仍需要增加农民保持可接受的收入水平的机会，逐步降低农村居民对清洁取暖补贴的依赖性. 

Clean Heating Pricing Policies Based on Different Subsidy Mechanisms in Rural Areas: A Comparative Analysis

Since 2017, clean energies have gradually replaced scattered coal used for winter heating in rural households in northern China. The clean heating pricing policies should not only realize the substitution of clean energy, but also ensure the heating welfare of rural residents and achieve sustainable effects. Based on field survey data of rural households adopting natural gas as clean energy in Tianjin, Hengshui and Dezhou, this paper discusses the impact of clean heating pricing policies based on different subsidy mechanisms. Rural residents′ energy consumption and self-reported apparent temperature are defined as the effects of pricing policies. The paired sample t-test, multiple regression and cost-benefit analysis methods are used. The results of the study show that: (1) The clean heating pricing policies have led to an increase in heating costs, but the introduction of subsidies will raise clean energy consumption and self-reported apparent temperatures. Every 1% increase in the proportion of subsidies to household income will result in 0.33% increase in the clean energy consumption and 0.035% increase in the self-reported apparent temperature. Although the benefit of clean heating is about five times the cost per-household, the clean heating pricing policy brings great financial pressures on local governments. (2) There are great differences in the impacts of clean heating pricing policies on energy consumption behaviors and pollution reduction effects. Tianjin has the highest natural gas consumption and self-reported apparent temperature per household. The per household natural gas consumption for heating in rural areas in Tianjin is 1180 m3, which is 1.4 times of that of Hengshui and twice that of Dezhou. The self-reported average apparent temperature is 20.2 ℃ in Tianjin, which is higher than that of Hengshui and Dezhou. (3) Lump-sum subsidies have provided distorted price signals by reducing clean energy consumption while increasing self-reported apparent temperature. (4) The effects of clean heating pricing policies are significantly influenced by household income, and the price elasticity of clean energy demand is ?6.886. Based on the above results, it is recommended that lump-sum subsidies be replaced with quantitative ones. Income related subsidy mechanisms or tiered subsidies are also recommended to ensure the heating welfare of low-income households. The regional air pollution compensation mechanisms are necessary for improved clean heating pricing systems that adapts to local conditions. Technological improvement and the development of multi energy systems are of great importance for alleviating financial pressures. In the long run, a sustainable clean heating pricing mechanism means to increase farmers′ abilities and opportunities to maintain a higher income level, and their dependence on subsidies will be gradually eliminated.