中国水泥行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

水泥行业是主要的CO₂排放行业，2020年我国水泥行业CO₂排放占全国排放总量的12%，占全国工业过程排放的60%以上. 为开展水泥行业碳达峰路径研究，提出了基于社会、经济等影响因素的多因素拟合分析模型以及基于主要下游产业的需求预测方法，对2021—2035年我国水泥熟料及水泥产量进行预测；并通过对水泥行业碳排放特征的分析，考虑主要控制措施的可行性，构建我国水泥行业CO₂排放情景，对2021—2035年水泥行业CO₂排放趋势进行测算，在此基础上分析水泥行业碳达峰路径及相关政策建议. 结果表明:①中国水泥熟料消费量在“十四五”期间仍有一定上升空间，随着经济社会的绿色转型，水泥市场需求在“十五五”时期下降. ②在此基础上，通过全面加强产能控制、加大落后产能淘汰力度、推广高效节能技术、积极推进原燃料替代，可推动水泥行业碳排放于“十四五”中期达峰，峰值为13.8×108～14.2×108 t，经过2～3年的峰值平台期后呈持续下降趋势，2030年水泥行业碳排放量将较2020年下降15%~18%. ③2030年，水泥熟料及水泥产量的下降将带动水泥行业碳排放量较2020年减少1.4×108 t. 在各项技术措施中，节能改造是CO₂减排潜力最大的措施，2030年能效提升可带动水泥行业CO₂排放量较2020年减少0.38×108 t；其次是利用固体废物替代燃煤，可带动行业CO₂排放量较2020年减少0.17×108 t. 研究显示，推动我国水泥行业碳达峰及碳减排，需在加强产量控制避免水泥过度消费的基础上，聚焦节能改造和原燃料替代措施. 

Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak for Cement Industry in China

The cement industry is one of the major CO₂ emission industries. CO₂ emissions of cement industry accounted for 12% of the total national emissions in China and over 60% of the national industrial process emissions. In order to study the pathway of carbon emissions peak of China′s cement industry, a multi-factor fitting analysis model based on social and economic factors and a demand forecasting method based on major downstream industries were proposed. The output of cement clinker and cement in China from 2021 to 2035 were predicted using the above methods. Based on the carbon emission characteristics of cement industry and considering the feasibility of main control measures, the CO₂ emission scenarios of China′s cement industry were designed. The CO₂ emissions of cement industry were calculated under different scenarios from 2021 to 2035. On this basis, the pathway of CO₂ emissions peak for cement industry and relevant policy suggestions were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The consumption of cement clinker in China will have some upside during the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ period. With the green transformation of economy and society, the demand of cement will decline during the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ period. (2) On this basis, the carbon emissions of the cement industry will reach its peak in the middle of the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ by strengthening capacity control, shutting down outdated capacity, promoting efficient and energy-saving technologies, and promoting the replacement of raw and fuel, and the peak value is 13.8×108-14.2×108 t. After a peak plateau period of 2-3 years, the carbon emissions will continue to decline. CO₂ emissions of the cement industry will be reduced by 15%-18% by 2030 compared to 2020. (3) Only taking into account the changes of cement clinker and cement production, in 2030 CO₂ emissions of the cement industry will be reduced by 1.4×108 t compared to 2020. Among the technical measures, energy conservation renovation is the biggest one to reduce CO₂ emissions. By 2030, the promotion of energy efficiency can reduce CO₂ emissions by about 0.38×108 t compared to 2020. Secondly, replacing coal with solid waste can reduce CO₂ emissions by 0.17×108 t compared to 2020. The research shows that to promote cement industry carbon peak and emissions reduction in China, it is necessary to focus on the measures of energy saving, fuel substitution and raw material substitution based on strengthening production control and avoiding excessive consumption of cement.