中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

钢铁行业是我国重要的CO₂排放源. 作为典型的资源能源密集型产业，钢铁行业加快绿色低碳转型、尽早实现碳达峰并有效降碳，既是行业自身高质量发展的内在需要，也是支撑落实国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的客观要求. 本文综合考虑经济社会发展、资源能源利用、工艺结构调整、低碳技术应用等因素影响，开展了基于情景分析的钢铁行业CO₂排放达峰路径研究，对不同情景下钢铁行业CO₂的排放趋势进行测算，识别钢铁行业CO₂减排的主要驱动因素，判断推动钢铁行业碳排放达峰的关键举措，为制定“双碳”目标背景下钢铁行业CO₂排放控制策略提供参考. 测算结果表明，我国钢铁行业CO₂总排放量有望在2020—2024年期间达到峰值；行业CO₂总排放量峰值为18.1×108~18.5×108 t，达峰后到2030年降幅将超过3×108 t. 研究显示，粗钢产量是决定我国钢铁行业碳排放能否快速达峰的关键，加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化以及提高系统能效水平是2030年前钢铁行业实现碳排放达峰并有效降碳的重要途径. 到2030年，粗钢产量降低、加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化、提高系统能效水平以及氢能炼钢和二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)等前沿技术对钢铁行业CO₂减排的贡献率分别为11%~52%、34%~52%、7%~20%、5%~13%和2%~3%. 

China's Iron and Steel Industry Carbon Emissions Peak Pathways

The iron and steel industry is an important carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission source in China. As a typical resource and energy-intensive industry, accelerating low-carbon transformation and peaking carbon emissions is not only the high-quality development demand for the industry, but also the objective requirements for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Considering the influence of economic and social development, resource and energy utilization, process structure adjustment, low-carbon technology application and other factors, we carried out an integrated scenario study on CO₂ emission peak path of the iron and steel industry by calculating the CO₂ emission trends of the industry under different scenarios, analyzing the main driving factors of CO₂ emission reduction, and identifying the key measures to promote the carbon emission peak of the iron and steel industry. The research results can provide support for policy making on carbon emission control of the industry under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Based on the calculation results of this study, the total CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry in China may reach an inflection point in 2020-2024. The peak values of total CO₂ emissions of the industry are about 18.1×108-18.5×108 t. After reaching the peak, the total CO₂ emissions of the industry may decrease by more than 3×108 t by 2030. The assessment results indicate that the production of crude steel is the key factor to determine whether the carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry can peak quickly. Meanwhile, increasing the utilization of scrap resources, promoting cleanness of purchased electricity, and improving the energy efficiency of the system are important ways for the industry to peak carbon emissions and achieve emission mitigation effectively before 2030. Based on our estimates, by 2030, the contribution of decrease of crude steel production, increasing scrap resource utilization, promoting clean electricity use, improving energy efficiency, and applying cutting-edge low carbon technologies such as H₂-DRI and CCUS will contribute to about 11%-52%, 34%-52%, 7%-20%, 5%-13% and 2%-3% of the CO₂ emission reductions for the industry, respectively.