重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究方法

区域化石能源消费量与碳排放量往往集中于少数高能耗、高排放的重点行业和领域. 重点行业/领域的产业规模、能源结构和碳排放变化直接决定区域碳排放达峰时间、达峰质量和峰值大小. 研究重点行业/领域碳达峰路径，是实现碳排放分区管控、落实行业减排责任和推动区域碳排放总量达峰的重要基础. 本研究构建了一种重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究方法，涵盖宏观目标约束、边界和范围确定、宏观需求预测、行业关联耦合四大模块. 该方法提供了在区域经济社会发展和碳达峰目标双约束下，不同行业/领域碳排放达峰的路径优化选择. 在充分考虑国民经济社会发展需求、行业发展技术特点、国内外进出口变化的基础上，宏观预测重点行业/领域发展规模与需求变化，同时结合以技术为核心的MESSAGE模型建立动态反馈机制，分析产业链上下游供需关系，建立行业内、行业间能量流、物质流耦合关系，通过不断迭代优化确立各行业/领域未来发展需求，并建立不同发展情景，综合研判各情景提出重点行业/领域碳达峰目标与路径. 该方法满足国家、省份、城市等不同区域尺度的重点行业/领域碳排放路径分析与减排措施、成本效益、政策保障评估. 

Research Method for Carbon Peaking Pathway in Key Industries/Sectors

Fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are concentrated in a few high energy consumption, high carbon emission industries and sectors. The industrial scale, energy structure, and carbon emission changes of key industries/sectors directly determine regional carbon peak time, carbon peak quality and carbon peak size. Studying the carbon peak path of key industries/sectors is an important basis for realizing the regional control of carbon emissions, implementing the responsibilities of industry emission reduction, and promoting the peak of total carbon emissions in the research regions. This study constructs a carbon peak path research method of key industries/sectors, covering four modules: macro target constraints, boundary and scope determination, macro demand prediction, industry association and coupling. The method provides the research scope and accounting boundary of carbon emissions of different industries/sectors under the dual constraints of regional economic and social development and carbon emission peak targets. On the basis of fully considering the needs of national economic and social development, the technical characteristics of industry development, and the changes in import and export trade, the development scale and demand changes of key industries/sectors are macro-predicted. Meanwhile, a dynamic feedback mechanism combined with the MESSAGE model is established to analyze the supply and demand relationship between upstream and downstream industrial chain, establish energy flow and material flow coupling within and the relationship between industries, and establish the future development demands and different development scenarios of various industries/sectors through continuous iterative optimization. Finally, the carbon peak target and path of key industries/sectors are put forward through a comprehensive analysis of each scenario. This method can satisfy the analysis of carbon emission path and the assessment of emission reduction measures, cost benefit and policy guarantee in national, provincial, urban and other regional scales.