中国煤化工行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

煤化工行业是我国煤炭消费和CO₂排放的主要贡献者之一，在2030年前实现碳达峰目标要求下，煤化工行业高碳排放的发展模式将不可持续且面临巨大挑战，开展煤化工行业CO₂排放达峰路径研究、实现高碳能源的绿色低碳化利用成为亟待解决的问题. 基于煤化工各子行业发展现状分析，综合考虑经济社会发展、节能低碳技术应用、原料和燃料结构调整等因素，采用下游部门需求法和项目法分别预测传统煤化工与现代煤化工各子行业未来发展规模，采用碳排放系数法预测不同情景下2021—2035年行业碳排放量变化趋势，判断行业实现碳达峰的关键措施、达峰时间和峰值. 结果表明:①2019年我国煤化工行业碳排放量为5.4×108 t，占全国碳排放总量的4.8%. 其中，传统煤化工碳排放量为3.6×108 t，现代煤化工碳排放量为1.8×108 t. ②基准情景下，煤化工行业无法在2030年前实现碳达峰；强化控制情景下，通过采取一系列控碳措施，可推动煤化工行业在2025年左右提前达到碳排放峰值. ③控制现代煤化工规模、优化行业用能结构、优化甲醇原料结构等措施是煤化工行业碳减排的三项主要措施，到2030年可分别减少碳排放0.50×108、0.16×108和0.08×108 t. 研究显示，促进煤化工行业碳达峰应尽快实施控制现代煤化工发展规模、从源头减少传统煤化工产品需求、优化甲醇行业原料结构、优化煤化工用能结构、提高行业能效水平和促进产品固碳化等政策措施. 

Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak of China's Coal Chemical Industry

The coal chemical industry is one of the main contributors to China's coal consumption and CO₂ emissions. Under the requirement of achieving a carbon peak by 2030, the development way of high carbon emissions of the coal chemical industry will be unsustainable and faces great challenges. It is urgent to carry out the research on the peak path of CO₂ emissions from coal chemical industry and achieve green and low-carbon utilization of high-carbon energy. Based on the development status of coal chemical industry, comprehensively considering economic and social development, application of energy-saving and low-carbon technology, adjustment of raw material and fuel structure, the downstream sector demand method and project classification statistics method are used to predict the future development of traditional coal chemical industry and modern coal chemical industry respectively. The carbon emission coefficient method is used to predict the change trend of carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035 under different scenarios. On this basis, the key measures, carbon peak time and peak emissions of the coal chemical industry are determined. The results show that: (1) In 2019, the carbon emissions of coal chemical industry in China is 5.4×108 t, accounting for 4.8% of the national total. Among them, the carbon emissions of traditional and modern coal chemical industries are 3.6×108 and 1.8×108 t, respectively. (2) Under the baseline scenario, the coal chemical industry cannot achieve a carbon peak before 2030. Under the enhanced control scenario, by taking a series of carbon control measures, the coal chemical industry could reach the carbon peak around 2025. (3) Controlling the scale of modern coal chemical industry, optimizing the energy consumption structure, and optimizing the raw material structure of methanol industry are the three main measures for coal chemical industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2030, the three measures can reduce carbon emissions by 0.50×108, 0.16×108 and 0.08×108 t, respectively. The research shows that policies and measures such as controlling the development scale of modern coal chemical industry, reducing the demand for traditional coal chemical products from the source, optimizing the raw material structure of methanol industry, optimizing the energy consumption structure, improving the energy efficiency, and promoting the carbonization of products should be implemented as soon as possible to promote the carbon peak of coal chemical industry.