中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门，碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的40%以上；同时，电力将是未来10年能源增长的主体，而这些新增用电与国计民生直接相关，属于刚性需求，是支撑我国经济转型升级和未来居民生活水平提高的重要保障. 电力行业未来新增需求压力巨大，其碳排放峰值及达峰速度将直接决定2030年前全国碳排放达峰目标能否实现. 统筹考虑社会经济发展、各部门用电需求、电源结构调整、发电标准煤耗变化等因素，采用基于情景分析的方法，开展电力行业碳排放趋势预测，识别碳减排的主要驱动因素，提出推动碳排放达峰的关键举措，为制定碳达峰目标背景下的电力行业碳排放控制路径提供参考. 结果表明:①通过积极措施，电力行业碳排放能够在2030年左右达峰，在不考虑热电联产供热碳排放时，于2028—2031年达峰，峰值为43.2×108~44.9×108 t，较2020年增加3.2×108~4.9×108 t；考虑热电联产供热碳排放，则达峰时间为2031—2033年，峰值为50.7×108~53.0×108 t，较2020年增加4.9×108~7.2×108 t. ②在电源结构不变的情况下，如到2030年降低2%左右的电力需求，达峰时间将提前4年左右. ③提速风光新能源发展是实现2030年前碳达峰的必然选择，到2030年，提高风光发电、核电、水电、生物质、气电发电装机容量及发电量、节能降耗措施等各项措施的减排贡献率分别为55.3%、10.6%、9.2%、7.6%、5.7%、11.5%. 研究显示，未来我国电力行业碳减排工作重点要聚焦于优化电源结构、推动形成绿色生产生活方式、提升用电效率、降低煤电机组能耗水平等方面. 

Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak in China's Electric Power Industry

The electric power industry is the largest carbon emission sector in China, accounting for more than 40% of the total carbon emissions. The demand for electricity is expected to increase most significantly in the next ten years, and the growth of electricity consumption is directly related to the national economic development and people's livelihood. Whether the carbon emission peaking target can be achieved or not mainly depends on the peaking time and value of carbon emissions in the power industry. Considering the influences of economic and social development, the electricity demand, the power source structure adjustments, the changes in the standard coal consumption rate for power generation and other factors, an integrated scenario study was carried out on the paths of CO₂ emission peaking in the power industry. The CO₂ emission trends were calculated under different scenarios, the main driving factors of CO₂ emission reduction were analyzed, and the key measures to promote the carbon emission peaking were identified. The research will provide support for policy making on carbon emission control to achieve the targets of carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) The carbon emissions from the power industry will peak around 2030, by taking active measures. Without considering heating supply, the carbon emissions from the power industry will reach the peak from 2028 to 2031, and the peak target is 43.2×108-44.9×108 t. Taking heating into account, the CO₂ emissions from power industry will peak by 2031-2033, and the peak target is 50.7×108-53.0×108 t. (2) In the case of the same power supply structure, if the power demand reduces by 2% by 2030, the peak time will be advanced by about 4 years. (3) Speeding up the development of solar and wind power is the inevitable choice to achieve the carbon peak before 2030. Increasing the share of renewable energies in power generation, such as wind and solar power, hydropower, nuclear power, biomass power and reducing standard coal consumption for power generation will account for 55.3%, 10.6%, 9.2%, 7.6%, 5.7%, 11.5% of CO₂ emissions reductions, respectively by 2030. Key measures to reduce carbon emissions in China's power industry are suggested, including optimizing the power supply structure, promoting green production and lifestyle, improving the efficiency of electricity consumption, and reducing the energy consumption of coal-fired power plants.