京津冀地区居民采暖"煤改电"的大气污染物减排潜力与健康效益评估

散煤燃烧等低矮面源的排放对京津冀等地区采暖季ρ（PM_2.5）贡献较大，是重污染天气形成的重要原因之一.针对京津冀地区居民采暖“煤改电”治理工程，以2025年为目标年，以不做任何散煤治理工作为基准情景，同时设计2种不同的控制情景（控制情景1、控制情景2），评估不同控制情景下“煤改电”带来的健康效益.通过综合考量民用散煤占燃煤消费量的比例、散煤PM_2.5排放强度，结合京津冀地区各城市PM_2.5源解析结果，确定民用散煤对大气环境ρ（PM_2.5）的贡献系数，计算空气质量改善情况.在此基础上，综合流行病学相关研究成果，运用环境健康风险评估方法，预测不同控制情景中京津冀地区居民采暖“煤改电”带来的健康效益.结果表明:①京津冀地区在控制情景1中ρ（PM_2.5）年均值分别下降4.9、4.9和1.1 μg/m3，在控制情景2中分别下降5.4、5.6和2.0 μg/m3；②在控制情景1、控制情景2中京津冀地区居民采暖“煤改电”带来的健康效益分别为266.55×108和352.34×108元，分别约占京津冀地区2015年GDP的0.38%和0.51%.研究显示，通过实施”煤改电”，京津冀地区可实现的健康效益相当可观，其中，北京市获得的健康效益最大，其次是河北省和天津市. 

Assessment of Air Pollutants Emission Reduction Potential and Health Benefits for 'Residential Heating Coal Changing to Electricity' in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The emissions from non-point source pollution such as residential coal combustion contribute greatly to the concentration of PM_2.5 in the heating season in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, which is one of the important reasons for the formation of heavy air pollution. In this study, three scenarios for the 'residential coal changing to electricity' project in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were designed. Taking 2025 as the target year, without any coal control as the baseline scenario, two different control scenarios (EC1, EC2) were set. The health and economic benefits from the 'residential coal changing to electricity' under different scenarios were evaluated. The air quality improvement was estimated considering the amount of residential coal reduction and the contribution of residential coal to PM_2.5 concentration, which was determined by the ratio of residential coal to the total coal consumption, the emission intensity of PM_2.5 from residential coal combustion, and source apportionment of PM_2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on the air improvement estimation and the research results of epidemiology, an environmental health risk assessment was used to predict the health benefits in the different control scenarios. The result showed:(1) In EC1, the annual average concentrations of PM_2.5 in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will decrease by 4.9, 4.9 and 1.1 μg/m3, respectively, while in EC2 it will decrease by 5.4, 5.6 and 2.0 μg/m3, respectively. (2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the health benefit in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in EC1 and EC2 will be 266.55×108 and 352.34×108 RMB, accounting for 0.38%, 0.51% of the GDP of this region in 2015. The research showed that Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will get considerable health benefits, in which Beijing will get the largest health benefits, followed by Hebei and Tianjin.