| 模糊证据权法在地震滑坡危险度区划中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢洪斌,杨雪,谭德军,罗真富.模糊证据权法在地震滑坡危险度区划中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢洪斌 杨雪 谭德军 罗真富 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆地质矿产研究院外生成矿与矿山环境重庆市重点实验室,重庆400042;煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室重庆研究中心,重庆400042
2. 成都理工大学,地球科学学院,四川成都610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市国土资源和房屋管理局科技计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为克服滑坡危险度评价中因子边界划分不确定性和因子权重的主观性问题,引入模糊证据权法,对汶川震区岷江流域雁门乡至映秀段,进行滑坡发生后验概率计算。采用修正后验概率模型,来满足模糊证据权法中证据层间的条件独立性假设,以提高预测结果精度。最后按照预测的滑坡点数,完成研究区滑坡危险度区划。通过与野外实际踏勘数据对比,结果显示:75.24%的已知滑坡点处于修正后验概分级中等危险度以上。表明模糊证据权方法,可较为客观准确地对地震滑坡危险度进行区划,适用于预测以自然因素为主导的事件发生概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊证据权 修正后验概率模型 滑坡危险度区划 汶川 地震滑坡 |
Application of Fuzzy Weight of Evidence Method in Seismic Landslide Zonation |
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| XIE Hong-bin,YANG Xue,TAN De-jun,LUO Zhen-fu.Application of Fuzzy Weight of Evidence Method in Seismic Landslide Zonation[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(8). |
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| Authors: | XIE Hong-bin YANG Xue TAN De-jun LUO Zhen-fu |
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| Institution: | XIE Hong-bin1,2 YANG Xue3 TAN De-jun1,2 LUO Zhen-fu1,2(1 Chongqing Key Laboratory of Exogenic Mineralization and Mine Environment,Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources,Chongqing400042,China 2 Chongqing Research Center,State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining,China3 College of Earth Science,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu Sichuan610059,China) |
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| Abstract: | To overcome the problem of uncertainty of boundary division and subjectivity weights in traditional method,the fuzzy weight of evidence model has been innovatively introduced to calculate the landslide probability.In order to improve the prediction precision,modified posterior probability model has been used to meet the condition of independent for evidence layers in the fuzzy weight of evidence model.And then,based on the landslide prediction number,landslide zoning for Minjiang River,Yanmen to Yingxiu rea... |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy weight of evidence modified posterior probability model landslide zonation Wenchuan seismic landslide |
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