Recovery or decline of the northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling |
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| Authors: | Olivia Langmead,Abigail McQuatters-Gollop,Laurence D. Mee,Jana Friedrich,Alison J. Gilbert,Marian-Traian Gomoiu,Emma L. Jackson,Stå le Knudsen,Galina Minicheva,Valentina Todorova |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Marine Institute, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK;2. Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK;3. Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK;4. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Marine Geochemistry, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany;5. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;6. National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology GEOECOMAR, 304 Bd. Mamaia, Constanta 8700, Romania;g Department for Social Anthropology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway;h Odessa Branch Institute of Biology of Southern Seas, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 37 Pushkinskaya St., Odessa 65125, Ukraine;i Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, First May Street 40, PO Box 152, Varna 9000, Bulgaria |
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| Abstract: | During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. |
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| Keywords: | Black Sea Bayesian belief network (BBN) Eutrophication DPSIR Marine socio-ecological systems |
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