基于水质超标率改进算法的巢湖引水方案优化

巢湖作为引江济淮工程的调蓄场所,从流域整体考虑,对巢湖引水方案进行优化具有重要意义。基于近10年巢湖地区实测水文、水质和气象资料,借助二维非稳态水环境模型对外部影响因素组合方案进行模拟,并对模拟结果进行不确定性分析、K-mediods聚类和SRRC敏感性分析,得到各外部影响因素定性和定量的权重,白石天河口NH₄+-N外部影响因素影响权重的排序为引水水质(56%)>引水流量(26%)>风速(18%),TP为引水水质(57%)>风速(29%)>引水流量(14%);杭埠河口NH₄+-N权重排序为风速(71%)>引水流量(16%)>引水水质(13%),TP为风速(73%)>引水水质(18%)>引水流量(9%)。根据外部影响因素权重改进超标率算法,白石天河口门(11.6%)引水水质超标率远低于杭埠河口门(28.4%)引水,白石天河口为最佳引水方案,为大型浅水湖泊引调水方案的比选提供参考。

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER DIVERSION SCHEME OF CHAO LAKE BY IMPROVED WATER QUALITY OVER-STANDARD RATE ALGORITHM

Chao Lake is a storage site for the diversion project from the Yangtze River to the Huai River, it is of great significance to optimize the selection of water diversion schemes starting from the whole basin. The paper based on nearly 10 years measured data of hydrology, water quality and meteorology in Chao Lake area with the usage of two-dimensional unsteady water environment model to simulate the combination of external influencing factors. Uncertainty analysis, K-mediods clustering analysis, and SRRC sensitivity analysis were performed on the simulation results to obtain the external influencing factors' qualitative and quantitative weights. The weights of the external influencing factors of ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus in the Baishitian River Estuary were ranked as diversion water quality (56%)>diversion flow (26%)>wind speed (18%), diversion water quality (57%)>wind speed (29%)>diversion flow (14%); the weights of ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus in the Hangbu River Estuary were ranked as wind speed (71%)>diversion flow (16%)>Diversion water quality (13%), and wind speed (73%)>diversion water quality (18%)>diversion flow (9%), respectively. Based on the weights of external factors, the over-standard rate algorithm was improved. The over-standard rate of water diversion at Baishitian River Estuary (11.6%) was much lower than that of Hangbu River Estuary (28.4%), and the Baishitian River Estuary was selected as the best diversion scheme. That provided a certain reference value for the comparison and selection of water diversion schemes for large shallow lakes.