基于时差相关分析和模糊神经网络的白洋淀流域水环境承载力评价预警

为实现水环境承载力评价和预警,运用耦合DPSR模型和时差分析方法构建了白洋淀流域水环境承载力监测预警指标体系,并结合神经网络与模糊数学构建了T-S模糊神经网络模型,根据控制图法确定了监测预警指标阈值,解决了水环境系统的随机性和模糊性问题,最终实现了白洋淀流域水环境承载力的有效评价和预警。结果表明:1)白洋淀流域水环境承载力在2012-2015年处于较弱承载状态,在2016,2017年处于中等承载状态,现状评价等级由Ⅳ级(橙色警灯)转变为Ⅲ级(黄色警灯);2)在现状发展趋势下,2018-2035年白洋淀流域水环境承载力整体呈先上升后下降趋势,自2026年以后流域水环境整体呈恶化状态,水环境承载力逐渐从中等承载(黄色警灯)向较弱承载(橙色警灯)和弱承载状态(红色警灯)转变;3)未来区域人口的增长和雄安新区的快速发展会给白洋淀流域水环境带来巨大压力,因此可加大区域水环境保护力度,实施基于空间单元的精细化环境管控方案,推动区域经济绿色转型,促进区域水环境质量全面改善和良性发展,以提高区域可持续发展水平。

EVALUATION AND EARLY WARNING OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN BAIYANGDIAN BASIN BASED ON TIME-DIFFERENCE CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK

In order to realize the water environmental carrying capacity evaluation and early warning,a monitoring and early warning index system of water environmental carrying capacity in Baiyangdian Basin was constructed by coupling DPSR model and time difference analysis method.In addition,T-S fuzzy neural network model was built by combining neural network and fuzzy mathematics,and the threshold value of monitoring and early warning index was determined by the control graph method,which solved the randomness and fuzziness of the water environment systems.Finally,the effective evaluation and early warning of water environmental carrying capacity in Baiyangdian Basin were realized.The results showed that:1) the water environmental carrying capacity of Baiyangdian Basin was in a weak carrying state from 2012 to 2015,and in a medium carrying state in 2016 and 2017.The status evaluation level changed from level Ⅳ(orange warning light) to Level Ⅲ(yellow warning light);2) under the current development trend,the overall water environmental carrying capacity of Baiyangdian Basin will increase first and then decrease from 2018 to 2035.The overall water environment of Baiyangdian Basin will deteriorate after 2026,the water environmental carrying capacity will gradually change from a medium carrying state (yellow warning light),to a weak carrying state (orange warning light) and even weaker carrying state (red warning light);3) the growth of the regional population and rapid development of Xiong'an New Area in the future will bring huge pressure to the water environment of Baiyangdian Basin.Therefore,the protection of the regional water environment should be strengthened,the refined environmental control schemes based on spatial units should be implemented to promote the green transformation of the regional economy,the overall improvement and healthy development of regional water environment quality,as well improve the level of regional sustainable development.