基于整数规划算法的大气排放源优化方案快速效果评估

基于空气质量模型模拟结果,利用0~1整数规划算法,建立了排放量与污染物环境浓度的多情景快速反应决策模型,实现了大气污染管控目标下大气污染物排放源调整方案的快速决策。以大气环境考核重点关注区域河北省沧州市高速合围区为例,采用AERMOD模拟分析了各排放源一次PM₁₀对国控点贡献排名情况,利用0~1整数规划模型求解了在贡献浓度调整下各排放源组的最优控制方案。结果表明:沧州市高速合围区内颗粒物排放源对国控点的污染浓度贡献中,道路源排放占比最高,其次为非道路移动源;此外,在实现合围区内排放总量调整最小且对国控点(市环保局、沧县城建局、电视转播站站点)贡献浓度均降低至少1.5 μg/m3的目标下,对"新华区省道""运河区土壤扬尘"源组的管控方案达到最优,源组总排放量为791.30 t/a,下降幅度为15.66 t/a,对各国控点年均贡献浓度为7.80,10.09,7.87 μg/m3,分别下降了1.75,2.00,1.52 μg/m3。该方法可实现在既定的大气污染源调整方案下的快速效果评估,并提供最优减排方案。

STUDIES ON CONTRIBUTION DECISION FOR FAST SIMULATION OF AIR POLLUTION SOURCES OPTMIZATION BASED ON INTEGER PROGRAMMING ALGORITHM

Based on the results of the air quality model and the 0~1 integer programming algorithm, the multi-scenario rapid response decision model of emission factors and pollutants’ environmental concentration was established, which realized the rapid decision of the adjustment plan of air pollutant emission sources under the air pollution control target. The model was applied to the high-speed enclosed area of Cangzhou, Hebei. Based on the AERMOD simulation results of atmospheric primary PM₁₀ in 2018, the contribution of each emission source to the national controlled point pollution in the enclosed area was analyzed, and the optimal source group control solution was obtained when the total contribution concentration value was adjusted. The results showed that among the particulate matter emission sources in Cangzhou expressway enclosed area, the contribution of road sources to national controlled points pollution was the highest, followed by non-road mobile sources. In addition, it was optimal to control the source groups of provincial road in Xinhua Distric and soil dust in Yunhe District under the goal of minimizing the total emission in the confined area and reducing the contribution concentration of national control points (Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau Station, Cangxian Urban Construction Bureau Station and TV Transmission Station) by at least 1.5 μg/m3, the total emission of source groups was 791.30 t/a, with a decrease of 15.66 t/a; the average annual contribution concentration of each control point was 7.80 μg/m3, 10.09 μg/m3 and 7.87 μg/m3, decreased by 1.75 μg/m3, 2.00 μg/m3 and 1.52 μg/m3, respectively. This research method realized the rapid effect evaluation under the given air pollution source adjustment plan, and gave the optimal emission reduction plan.