中国城市化水平省际差异的成因探析

1990～2000年中国城市化水平的省际差异已从原来的北高南低态势转变为目前东高西低的格局。这是由各地区不同的自然环境背景、人口分布与增长、经济发展水平，以及国家区域发展政策等因素的综合影响而形成的。对中国各省区1990年和2000年城市化水平与自然、人口、经济发展、工业化水平等四类12个指标的因子分析表明，区域城市化水平不仅与工业化水平或经济发展水平呈正相关，与人口密度、农业经济呈负相关，而且受工业化水平或经济发展水平的影响更为强烈。并且，随着社会经济发展和工业化推进，工业化因子对城市化的拉动效应在减弱，而综合经济发展对城市化的拉动效应在显著增强。

CAUSAL ANALYSIS ON THE REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF URBANIZATION IN CHINA

In the period of 1990~2000, urbanization grew faster in the eastern and southern provinces and rather slower in the western and northern provinces in China according to Census data in 1990 and 2000. Thus the regional disparity of urbanization among provinces has transformed from the former Northern Southern pattern to the current Eastern Western. The regional disparities of urbanization in China is comprehensively caused by the different natural and environmental background, population growth, economic development among the provinces and the regional development policies of the central government. Among of those, the regional disparities of economic development and the promotion efficacies to urbanization growth are of critical importance. Further, a factor analysis between the urbanization levels and their 12 selected natural and economic statistical indices is conducted at the provincial level in 1990 and 2000. The results show that, firstly, the urbanization level of a province is positively related with its industrialization level or economic development level and negatively with its population density and per capita agricultural output while the impact of the former factor is more intensive and significant; secondly, with the proceeding of industrialization and economic development, the promotion effect of industrialization on urbanization growth become weaker and that of comprehensive economic development become much stronger.