Assessment of temporal stability in risk factors of crashes at horizontal curves on rural two-lane undivided highways |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Engineering, Civil Engineering Department University of Wasit, Kut, Iraq;2. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2051, USA;1. University of Iowa Injury Prevention Research Center, 2195 Westlawn, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;2. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, 145 North Riverside Drive, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;3. Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, 145 North Riverside Drive, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;4. Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, 145 North Riverside Drive, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA;1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;2. Center for Connected Multimodal Mobility, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;3. School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;1. College of Engineering, Zhejiang Normal University, Zhejiang 321005, China;2. Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology & Equipment of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Normal University, Zhejiang 321005, China;3. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 611756, China;4. Sichuan Vocational and Technical College of Communications, Chengdu, Sichuan 611130, China;1. National Technical University of Athens, Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering, 5 Heroon Polytechniou str., Athens, GR15773, Greece;2. University of Thessaly, Department of Civil Engineering, Pedion Areos, Volos, GR38334, Greece;3. Attica Tollway Operations Authority – Attikes Diadromes S.A., 41.9 km Attiki Odos Motorway, Paiania, GR19002, Greece;1. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain;2. Departamento de Estructuras y Física de Edificación, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain;3. Departamento de Ingeniería del Transporte, Territorio y Urbanismo, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain;1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;2. Applied Statistics, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 USA |
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| Abstract: | Introduction: Safety of horizontal curves on rural two-lane, two-way undivided roadways is not fully explored. This study investigates factors that impact injury severity of such crashes. Method: To achieve the aim of this paper, issues associated with police-reported crash data such as unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability need to be accounted for. Hence, a mixed logit model was estimated, while heterogeneity in means and variances is investigated by considering four injury severity outcomes for drivers: severe injury, moderate injury, possible injury, and no injury. Crash data for the period between 2011 and 2016 for crashes that occurred in the state of Oregon was analyzed. Temporal stability in factors determining the injury severity was investigated by identifying three time periods through splitting crash data into 2011–2012, 2013–2014, and 2015–2016. Results: Despite some factors affecting injuries in all specified time periods, the values of the marginal effects showed relative differences. The estimation results revealed that some factors increased the risk of being involved in severe injury crashes, including head-on collisions, drunk drivers, failure to negotiate curves, older drivers, and exceeding the speed limits. Conclusions: The hypothesis that attributes of injury severity are temporally stable is rejected. For example, young drivers (30 years old and younger) and middle-aged drivers were found to be temporally instable over time. Practical applications: The findings could help transportation authorities and safety professionals to enhance the safety of horizontal curves through appropriate and effective countermeasures. |
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| Keywords: | Injury severity Two-lane undivided highways Temporal stability Horizontal curve Heterogeneity in means and variances |
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