渤海海上石油平台的溢油风险概率评估

本研究通过层次分析法，筛选和分析了海上石油平台溢油风险源，初步建立海上石油平台溢油风险评价指标体系，确定评价指标权重集和隶属度，并运用多级模糊综合评价方法对该类设施溢油风险进行综合评价。结合SINTEF井喷/井涌数据库和DNV海上平台溢油概率模型，建立了渤海海上石油平台溢油风险概率模型。通过对渤西某一生产平台溢油风险等级进行计算，结果显示，平台评分为41.6，溢油风险等级中等偏低，溢油风险概率模型按平台数量和油处理量分别为F=5.7×10-5Q-0.3和F=4.0×10-4Q-0.988。该评价方法可判断海上石油平台溢油风险等级和溢油风险概率，可为海上石油平台溢油事故应急提供技术支持。

Oil spill risk assessment of offshore platform in Bohai Sea

To comprehensively evaluate the risks of offshore platform oil spill in the Bohai Sea and establish an effective appraisal system, we screened and identified the underlying oil spill sources by means of the analytic hierarchy process.The extent to which oil spill may occur was also considered using a fuzzy comprehensive method.For these purposes, a probability model for predicting the oil spill risks was established by the combination of SINTEF blowout/kick database and DNV oil spill risk assessment model, and a working platform located in the Western Bohai Sea was exemplified.Building on the platform number and oil processing capacity, two models of F=5.7×10-5Q-0.3 and F=4.0×10-4Q-0.988 were set up for this platform, respectively.A total score of 41.6 implied a moderate level of oil spill risk.The risk assessment method can be utilized to effectively evaluate the degree and probability of offshore platform oil spill and consequently offer the important technical support during emergency response operations.